MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

Fantasy Baseball 2013 Rankings

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

<center>Overall Rank </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Eligible Position(s) </center>	<center> Age </center>	<center> 2012 Player Rater* </center>
1	Ryan Braun	Mil	OF	29	2
2	Miguel Cabrera	Det	3B	29	3
3	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	21	1
4	Andrew McCutchen	Pit	OF	26	4
5	Matt Kemp	LAD	OF	28	92
6	Joey Votto	Cin	1B	29	132
7	Carlos Gonzalez	Col	OF	27	25
8	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B	30	17
9	Prince Fielder	Det	1B	28	26
10	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B/DH	33	32
11	Felix Hernandez	Sea	SP	26	39
12	Justin Verlander	Det	SP	30	8
13	Jason Heyward	Atl	OF	23	37
14	Edwin Encarnacion	Tor	DH/1B	30	13
15	David Price	TB	SP	27	15
16	Giancarlo Stanton	Mia	OF	23	44
17	Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	SP	24	77
18	Jose Bautista	Tor	OF	32	201
19	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SP	25	9
20	Evan Longoria	TB	3B/DH	27	274
21	Matt Cain	SF	SP	28	19
22	David Wright	NYM	3B	30	24
23	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B	26	27
24	Madison Bumgarner	SF	SP	23	52
25	Justin Upton	Ari	OF	25	58
26	Josh Hamilton	LAA	OF	31	6
27	Starlin Castro	ChC	SS	23	54
28	Cliff Lee	Phi	SP	34	95
29	Dustin Pedroia	Bos	2B	29	75
30	Adrian Beltre	Tex	3B/DH	33	12
31	Zack Greinke	LAD	SP	29	91
32	Adam Jones	Bal	OF	27	18
33	Cole Hamels	Phi	SP	29	30
34	Hanley Ramirez	LAD	3B/SS	29	63
35	Jay Bruce	Cin	OF	25	65
36	Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	SP	27	20
37	Troy Tulowitzki	Col	SS	28	499
38	Jacoby Ellsbury	Bos	OF	29	376
39	Jered Weaver	LAA	SP	30	22
40	Matt Holliday	StL	OF	33	33
41	Ian Kinsler	Tex	2B	30	80
42	Jose Reyes	Tor	SS	29	28
43	Curtis Granderson	NYY	OF	32	46
44	Billy Butler	KC	DH/1B	26	29
45	R.A. Dickey	Tor	SP	38	5
46	Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	1B	30	71
47	Johnny Cueto	Cin	SP	27	35
48	Michael Bourn	FA	OF	30	34
49	Elvis Andrus	Tex	SS	24	116
50	Adam Wainwright	StL	SP	31	156
51	Austin Jackson	Det	OF	26	59
52	CC Sabathia	NYY	SP	32	66
53	Brandon Phillips	Cin	2B	31	81
54	Desmond Jennings	TB	OF	26	128
55	Aroldis Chapman	Cin	RP	25	16
56	Mat Latos	Cin	SP	25	93
57	Joe Mauer	Min	C/DH/1B	29	68
58	Craig Kimbrel	Atl	RP	24	10
59	Roy Halladay	Phi	SP	35	269
60	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B	32	189
61	Matt Moore	TB	SP	23	230
62	Chase Headley	SD	3B	28	14
63	Ian Desmond	Wsh	SS	27	38
64	Freddie Freeman	Atl	1B	23	126
65	Chris Sale	CWS	SP	24	43
66	Brett Lawrie	Tor	3B	23	192
67	B.J. Upton	Atl	OF	28	47
68	Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	SP	26	102
69	Allen Craig	StL	1B/OF	28	82
70	Yoenis Cespedes	Oak	OF/DH	27	56
71	Paul Goldschmidt	Ari	1B	25	55
72	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	SP	27	130
73	Jason Motte	StL	RP	30	36
74	Ryan Zimmerman	Wsh	3B	28	60
75	James Shields	KC	SP	31	61
76	Yu Darvish	Tex	SP	26	127
77	Pablo Sandoval	SF	3B	26	250
78	Shin-Soo Choo	Cin	OF	30	64
79	Max Scherzer	Det	SP	28	112
80	Jonathan Papelbon	Phi	RP	32	50
81	Alex Gordon	KC	OF	29	85
82	Ben Revere	Phi	OF	24	98
83	Mark Trumbo	LAA	OF/DH/1B	27	101
84	Kris Medlen	Atl	RP/SP	27	31
85	Jason Kipnis	Cle	2B	25	69
86	Erick Aybar	LAA	SS	29	144
87	Matt Wieters	Bal	C	26	195
88	Asdrubal Cabrera	Cle	SS	27	167
89	Dan Haren	Wsh	SP	32	271
90	Alex Rios	CWS	OF	32	11
91	Aaron Hill	Ari	2B	31	21
92	Andre Ethier	LAD	OF	30	114
93	Aramis Ramirez	Mil	3B	34	23
94	Lance Lynn	StL	SP	25	146
95	Bryce Harper	Wsh	OF	20	83
96	Dexter Fowler	Col	OF	27	131
97	Ben Zobrist	TB	OF/2B/SS	31	99
98	Ike Davis	NYM	1B	26	205
99	Addison Reed	CWS	RP	24	262
100	Michael Morse	Wsh	OF	31	217
101	Anthony Rizzo	ChC	1B	23	280
102	J.J. Putz	Ari	RP	36	135
103	Josh Willingham	Min	OF/DH	34	62
104	Ryan Howard	Phi	1B	33	526
105	Jimmy Rollins	Phi	SS	34	49
106	Carlos Gomez	Mil	OF	27	67
107	Jose Altuve	Hou	2B	22	88
108	Jim Johnson	Bal	RP	29	41
109	Carlos Beltran	StL	OF	35	42
110	Adam LaRoche	FA	1B	33	86
111	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	SP	38	78
112	Martin Prado	Atl	OF/3B	29	74
113	Brett Anderson	Oak	SP	25	441
114	Shane Victorino	Bos	OF	32	94
115	Chris Davis	Bal	DH/OF/1B	27	104
116	Rickie Weeks	Mil	2B	30	185
117	Joe Nathan	Tex	RP	38	90
118	Neil Walker	Pit	2B	27	181
119	Carlos Santana	Cle	C/DH/1B	26	219
120	Angel Pagan	SF	OF	31	57
121	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B	23	255
122	Jake Peavy	CWS	SP	31	72
123	Josh Reddick	Oak	OF	26	107
124	Drew Storen	Wsh	RP	25	409
125	Pedro Alvarez	Pit	3B	26	183
126	Joel Hanrahan	Bos	RP	31	115
127	Doug Fister	Det	SP	29	176
128	Josh Johnson	Tor	SP	29	239
129	Huston Street	SD	RP	29	154
130	Mariano Rivera	NYY	RP	43	548
131	Melky Cabrera	Tor	OF	28	48
132	Hunter Pence	SF	OF	29	117
133	Fernando Rodney	TB	RP	36	7
134	Yadier Molina	StL	C	30	53
135	Paul Konerko	CWS	1B/DH	37	111
136	Nelson Cruz	Tex	OF	32	108
137	Kenley Jansen	LAD	RP	25	73
138	Tim Lincecum	SF	SP	28	515
139	Colby Rasmus	Tor	OF	26	266
140	David Freese	StL	3B	29	122
141	Greg Holland	KC	RP	27	208
142	Wade Miley	Ari	SP	26	106
143	Jason Kubel	Ari	OF	30	136
144	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF	29	1022
145	Torii Hunter	Det	OF	37	51
146	Rafael Soriano	FA	RP	33	79
147	Miguel Montero	Ari	C	29	169
148	Corey Hart	Mil	1B/OF	31	84
149	Jon Lester	Bos	SP	29	449
150	Alfonso Soriano	ChC	OF	37	87
151	Ian Kennedy	Ari	SP	28	174
152	David Ortiz	Bos	DH	37	142
153	Danny Espinosa	Wsh	2B/SS	25	155
154	Sergio Romo	SF	RP	30	152
155	Alejandro De Aza	CWS	OF	28	109
156	Will Middlebrooks	Bos	3B	24	284
157	Ryan Madson	LAA	RP	32	--
158	Rajai Davis	Tor	OF	32	96
159	Carl Crawford	LAD	OF	31	618
160	Coco Crisp	Oak	OF	33	105
161	Derek Holland	Tex	SP	26	257
162	Rafael Betancourt	Col	RP	37	159
163	Chris Perez	Cle	RP	27	141
164	Brandon Morrow	Tor	SP	28	164
165	Jarrod Parker	Oak	SP	24	173
166	Ernesto Frieri	LAA	RP	27	103
167	Alcides Escobar	KC	SS	26	70
168	Nick Swisher	Cle	OF/1B	32	123
169	Manny Machado	Bal	3B	20	596
170	Ichiro Suzuki	NYY	OF	39	89
171	Derek Jeter	NYY	SS/DH	38	45
172	Howard Kendrick	LAA	2B	29	162
173	Wilin Rosario	Col	C	24	140
174	Tim Hudson	Atl	SP	37	163
175	Jonathan Broxton	Cin	RP	28	175
176	J.J. Hardy	Bal	SS	30	253
177	John Axford	Mil	RP	30	187
178	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	SP	28	186
179	Cameron Maybin	SD	OF	25	221
180	Tyler Clippard	Wsh	RP	28	148
181	Cody Ross	Ari	OF	32	166
182	Jaime Garcia	StL	SP	26	410
183	Mike Minor	Atl	SP	25	188
184	Norichika Aoki	Mil	OF	31	76
185	Jose Valverde	FA	RP	35	170
186	Dustin Ackley	Sea	2B	25	298
187	Michael Saunders	Sea	OF	26	153
188	Sean Marshall	Cin	RP	30	242
189	Jonathon Niese	NYM	SP	26	119
190	Michael Brantley	Cle	OF	25	179
191	Matt Harrison	Tex	SP	27	118
192	Edwin Jackson	ChC	SP	29	198
193	David Murphy	Tex	OF	31	125
194	A.J. Burnett	Pit	SP	36	113
195	Kyle Seager	Sea	3B	25	134
196	Omar Infante	Det	2B	31	158
197	Jon Jay	StL	OF	28	151
198	Kendrys Morales	Sea	DH/1B	29	190
199	Jayson Werth	Wsh	OF	33	333
200	C.J. Wilson	LAA	SP	32	209
201	Daniel Murphy	NYM	2B	28	177
202	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B	24	236
203	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	SP	25	180
204	David Robertson	NYY	RP	27	334
205	Anibal Sanchez	Det	SP	29	222
206	Nick Markakis	Bal	OF	29	228
207	Casey Janssen	Tor	RP	31	138
208	Phil Hughes	NYY	SP	26	182
209	Alexei Ramirez	CWS	SS	31	165
210	Ryan Dempster	Bos	SP	35	139
211	Will Venable	SD	OF	30	184
212	Todd Frazier	Cin	3B/1B	27	215
213	Adam Dunn	CWS	DH/1B	33	161
214	Salvador Perez	KC	C	22	352
215	Gordon Beckham	CWS	2B	26	325
216	Kevin Youkilis	NYY	3B/1B	34	301
217	Dayan Viciedo	CWS	OF	24	199
218	Matt Garza	ChC	SP	29	327
219	Chris Johnson	Ari	3B	28	196
220	James McDonald	Pit	SP	28	233
221	Dee Gordon	LAD	SS	24	364
222	Denard Span	Wsh	OF	29	197
223	Mike Napoli	Bos	C/1B	31	321
224	Tommy Hanson	LAA	SP	26	362
225	Delmon Young	FA	DH/OF	27	240
226	Brandon League	LAD	RP	30	317
227	Brandon Belt	SF	1B	24	258
228	Andrew Bailey	Bos	RP	28	776
229	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	SP	35	129
230	Trevor Cahill	Ari	SP	25	193
231	Jesus Montero	Sea	DH/C	23	319
232	Marco Scutaro	SF	2B/SS	37	97
233	Carlos Marmol	ChC	RP	30	295
234	Trevor Plouffe	Min	3B	26	304
235	Victor Martinez	Det	C	34	--
236	Matt Harvey	NYM	SP	24	356
237	Zack Cozart	Cin	SS	27	344
238	Wil Myers	TB	OF	22	--
239	Chase Utley	Phi	2B	34	300
240	Clay Buchholz	Bos	SP	28	353
241	Josh Beckett	LAD	SP	32	442
242	Everth Cabrera	SD	SS	26	194
243	Emilio Bonifacio	Tor	OF	27	346
244	Vinnie Pestano	Cle	RP	28	283
245	Juan Pierre	Mia	OF	35	121
246	Jason Grilli	Pit	RP	36	348
247	Grant Balfour	Oak	RP	35	110
248	Dan Uggla	Atl	2B	33	265
249	Jason Vargas	LAA	SP	30	145
250	Michael Young	Phi	DH/1B/3B	36	220

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[HacheMan]

[h=1]Hanrahan deal shuffles two 'pens[/h][h=3]Plus, fantasy impact of Nick Swisher deal with Indians[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Wednesday's trade for Joel Hanrahan didn't clear things up for either the Boston Red Sox or Pittsburgh Pirates bullpens quite as neatly as you might think it did.

One of only three to rank among the top 15 relief pitchers on our Player Rater in each of the past two seasons (Craig Kimbrel and Jonathan Papelbon were the others), Hanrahan might have gained some in team support (and that's debatable considering the Pirates actually won 10 more games than did the Red Sox in 2012) but lost some in terms of job security. He's now on a team with playoff aspirations and a decade-long track record of success, but he also enters a more pressurized environment on a team with quality alternatives for his role.

That's not necessarily a good thing; not for a closer whose walk and home run rates soared last season. Hanrahan's walks per nine innings ratio rose from 2.10 in 2011 to 5.43 in 2012, and his homers allowed per nine climbed from 0.13 to 1.21. He also experienced noticeable increases in both his fly ball rate, which went from 30.1 to 45.3 percent, and his well-hit average allowed, which boosted from .177 to .192. Understandably, his second-half ERA was 3.16 and WHIP was 1.48 last season, and that represented his worst half-season since the first half of 2010.

In Boston, Hanrahan joins a roster that, him excluded, has 150 career saves combined (237 if you count starter Ryan Dempster's 87). Frankly, if not for assistant general manager Brian O'Halloran's post-trade announcement that manager John Farrell wants Hanrahan to be his closer, it'd be a legitimate debate whether Hanrahan should close over Andrew Bailey (81 career saves) or even Koji Uehara (14). Their in-season performances could yet make it a debate.

Most of Hanrahan's issues last season can be traced to command, specifically of his fastball. It lost more than 1 mph in velocity, averaging 95.8 compared to 97.0 in 2011. He spotted it in the strike zone 3 percent less often and threw it in the upper third of the zone or above four percent more often. Improving that will be critical to his 2013 success, and while he might yet do so, he won't have nearly the leash he did in Pittsburgh.

In Hanrahan's defense, even with diminished velocity his 95.8-mph average fastball ranked 17th-best among qualified relievers last season, meaning his arsenal still has hope. In addition, he shouldn't go so many as 11 team games between save opportunities in Boston, his sporadic chances with the Pirates perhaps contributing to his past year's struggles. A change of scenery could help him, and it's the primary reason his fantasy value doesn't substantially sink following the trade. He's now my No. 11 closer, dropping one spot, and he's the No. 126 player overall, down five spots.

Hanrahan might be one of the few must-handcuff closers of 2013, however, and that can be a shaky strategy considering how tenuous the saves market is. Bailey is just as deserving of a chance if Hanrahan struggles early in the year, and it's for that reason that Bailey, who has the 13th-best qualified relief ERA (2.47) and 14th-best WHIP (1.03) during his four-year big-league career, hangs in there within my top 40 relief pitchers, at No. 31, following Hanrahan's acquisition.

Back in Pittsburgh, we've also got an official, post-trade declaration of closers: Jason Grilli, who recently signed a two-year, $6.75-million contract with the Pirates, will be Hanrahan's successor. Grilli earned the opportunity; he had the 25th-best WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among relievers with 90-plus innings from 2011 to 2012.


Still, let's not forget that Grilli is a 36-year-old, 10-year major league veteran with only five career saves to his credit. He deserves recognition for having improved himself to the point where he's one of the better late-inning relievers in the game, thanks primarily to increased fastball velocity and greater slider usage, but at the same time he's the fantasy equivalent of a 2011 Kyle Farnsworth [e] a sleeper saves-getter who resides in the "late bloomer" category.

There's a primary difference between Grilli and Farnsworth: Grilli is an extreme fly-baller, whereas Farnsworth's breakout 2011 was a product of a cut fastball that helped his ground-ball rate soar higher than 50 percent. Grilli allowed either a fly ball or line drive 68.5 percent of his balls in play last season; that was the ninth-highest rate among relievers. In other words, his 1.07 homers-per-nine innings ratio should've been entirely understandable and expected.

With news of his new closer-ship, Grilli moves into my top 40 relief pitchers at No. 34. He's one of the better "on the cheap" options if you go that route thanks to his combination of saves and strikeouts, but understand that he'll have his share of rocky, frustrating outings due to his fly ball nature.

Mark Melancon, the ex-Houston Astros closer whom the Pirates acquired in the deal, might be the most intriguing name for fantasy purposes of the lesser players involved. Though he was a bust as a temporary fill-in for Bailey in Boston, Melancon might be well served in the lower-pressure environment in Pittsburgh, and he could get a chance to close should Grilli fail. He seemed to get back on track during a stay with Triple-A Pawtucket, where he had a 0.83 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings in 21 appearances. And in eight September appearances for the Red Sox, he had a 0.90 ERA, 0.50 WHIP and 11.70 K's-per-9 ratio. Make no mistake, Melancon's skills are limited due to a steep platoon split -- .743 OPS allowed to lefties and .629 to righties in his big-league career -- but he's worth a late-round, couple-buck bid in NL-only leagues in the hopes of cheap saves.

Among the other names involved, neither Jerry Sands nor Ivan De Jesus should occupy significant roles for the Pirates in 2013, both vying for bench spots. Sands might be one of those midseason-pickup, fill-in capable players if the Pirates need him, but NL-only owners shouldn't consider him more than a final-round pick. Prospect Stolmy Pimentel, meanwhile, might at best be a midseason candidate for a rotation spot, and even then his initial struggles in Double-A in 2011 suggest he might need some time to adapt once he reaches the majors.

[h=3]Nick Swisher joins the Cleveland Indians[/h]
Not that it was remotely unexpected, but Nick Swisher's official signing with a team other than the New York Yankees makes it pretty clear: The Yankees are not going to be quite as good a hitting team in 2013 as in the recent past.


This is a team that, as things currently stand, have speed-oriented players in Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki at either outfield corner, two aging left-side infielders with injury questions in Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, two sluggers who in recent seasons have begun trading batting average for power in Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson, and a mishmash of weak-hitting players at catcher. There is therefore little doubt that this team will struggle to meet or exceed last season's 804 runs scored, and that means diminished runs/RBI support for their hitters. And while there's still time for the Yankees to make a meaningful acquisition (or three) -- meaning one greater than platoon man Matt Diaz -- it's a good time to caution fantasy owners: Don't assume pinstripes equal instant fantasy production.

As for Swisher, he's one of the more underrated power/on-base players in the game, one of only eight players to have managed at least 20 homers and a .330 on-base percentage in each season since 2006. He's hardly a ballpark product, either: Of his 105 home runs during his four-year Yankees career, only 49 were hit at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. In only two of those seasons did he hit more homers at home than on the road, and in each he managed only one more at home than on the road (15-14 in 2012, 12-11 in 2011).

In other words, Swisher's homers and walks should scarcely change in Cleveland, the only impact being a slightly weaker supporting cast, meaning he might be more of an 85-RBI, 70-run performer as a No. 3 or 4 hitter rather than the 93-75 performer he was with the 2012 Yankees. Much of that, though, will depend on how the Indians stack their lineup -- will they bat him behind on-base specialist Carlos Santana, boosting his RBI potential, or might they inexplicably bat Drew Stubbs in the top third, adversely impacting Swisher's RBIs?

Swisher is my No. 168 player overall and No. 53 outfielder. He's a fine fourth outfielder in mixed leagues, just as he was in New York.

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Chart

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated January 7)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
Prominent free agents: Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Jon Rauch, Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson.

Team	<center> Closer </center>	<center> Next in line </center>	<center> Stealth </center>	<center> Looming </center>
	J.J. Putz	David Hernandez	Heath Bell	Brad Ziegler
	Craig Kimbrel	Jonny Venters	Jordan Walden	Eric O'Flaherty
	Jim Johnson	Pedro Strop	Tommy Hunter	Darren O'Day
	Joel Hanrahan	Andrew Bailey	Koji Uehara	Daniel Bard
	Carlos Marmol	Kyuji Fujikawa	James Russell	Arodys Vizcaino
	Addison Reed	Matt Thornton	Jesse Crain	Nate Jones
	Jonathan Broxton	Sean Marshall	J.J. Hoover	Jose Arredondo
	Chris Perez	Vinnie Pestano	Bryan Shaw	Matt Albers
	Rafael Betancourt	Rex Brothers	Wilton Lopez	Matt Belisle
	Phil Coke	Joaquin Benoit	Bruce Rondon	Octavio Dotel
	Jose Veras	Wesley Wright	Fernando Rodriguez	Jarred Cosart
	Greg Holland	Aaron Crow	Tim Collins	Kelvin Herrera
	Ryan Madson	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Kevin Jepsen
	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Ronald Belisario	Javy Guerra
	Steve Cishek	Mike Dunn	Ryan Webb	Jose Ceda
	John Axford	Mike Gonzalez	Jim Henderson	Fautino De Los Santos
	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Alex Burnett	Josh Roenicke
	Frank Francisco	Bobby Parnell	Josh Edgin	Jenrry Mejia
	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain	David Aardsma
	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle	Pat Neshek
	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Phillippe Aumont	Antonio Bastardo
	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Jared Hughes	Tony Watson
	Jason Motte	Edward Mujica	Mitchell Boggs	Fernando Salas
	Huston Street	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer	Andrew Cashner
	Sergio Romo	Javier Lopez	Santiago Casilla	Jeremy Affeldt
	Tom Wilhelmsen	Stephen Pryor	Lucas Luetge	Carter Capps
	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Jake McGee	Chris Archer
	Joe Nathan	Joakim Soria	Tanner Scheppers	Neftali Feliz
	Casey Janssen	Sergio Santos	Darren Oliver	Aaron Loup
	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard	Henry Rodriguez	Christian Garcia

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[HacheMan]

[h=1]Youngsters who will bounce back[/h][h=3]These kids should return to their path to stardom in 2013[/h]
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory

One of the hardest labels for a young player to shake is that of disappointment. Even Hall of Famers, such as Roberto Clemente and Lou Brock, were generally considered to be underachievers early in their careers. When it comes to talented players in their early 20s, fans tend to expect a bumpless road to stardom, but reality is seldom that neat and tidy.

Some of baseball's young stars did live up to their hype and reputation in 2012, most notably excellent seasons from shoulda-been-MVP Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg. But inevitably, not all of baseball's most talented younger players excelled in 2012 and like many players before them, will seek to shed the mark of disappointment in 2013. With nearly a foot of snow in my driveway taunting me into exertion -- and I'm certainly not alone -- this is a good time to make some predictions about which of 2012's young flops will have warmer 2013s.

[h=3]Justin Upton, RF, age 25[/h]<offer>
If you want to single out a player as an example of how fickle the expectations game is, you can't do much better than Upton. After a .289/.369/.529, 5.7 WAR, 141 OPS+ season that netted Upton a fourth-place finish in the 2011 NL MVP voting, people were very quick to assume that Upton had finally cemented a place in superstardom. The idea that Upton would fail to match or improve on his age-23 season wasn't a very popular one last winter. The ZiPS projection system pegged Upton dropping down to a still-excellent 128 OPS+ in 2012 and, at least from the results in my inbox, one of the more controversial projections.

Turned out that Upton's fans and ZiPS both missed high. Upton's OPS+ tallied in at 107, well below any projection I can find for 2012. In three months' time, Upton went from the centerpiece of Arizona's lineup to perhaps the most notable trade target in July. Upton remains a Diamondback, but you still can't go an entire day without a new rumor about his next uniform circulating.

When you hit .280/.355/.430 in your terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season, chances are you still have a lot going for you. Upton's very nearly been written off, but he remains a young player, with some history of pretty good success, signed for three years and $38.5 million, a reasonable deal when you consider the final two years buy out what would be free agency.
ZiPS pegs Upton to recover to a 24-homer, 3.4 WAR year in 2013 and that's not a projection I can quibble with. He's still young enough to have upside to significantly beat that projection. Even if 2011 remains his only superstar year, I'd rather have an underperforming star than an overperforming scrub.

[h=3]Eric Hosmer, 1B, age 23[/h]
Hosmer was a trendy pick to have a breakout season in 2012. That didn't happen. Many people saw his solid 2011 debut, at age 21, as a sign of bigger things to come (myself included), but Hosmer hit a woeful .232/.304/.359. He finished the season as poorly as he started it, hitting .179/.264/.295 in September.

Luckily, as he's just turned 23, it's way too early to throw in the towel on Hosmer. While I disagree with most things the Kansas City Royals do, nobody can claim that they didn't show faith in Hosmer this year, keeping him in the lineup and letting him take his lumps, despite his essentially hitting like a minor leaguer for great stretches of the season. And if the Royals didn't still have faith in him it would have been harder for them to justify shifting into win-now mode by trading top prospect Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields and Wade Davis.

Even in a terrible season, there were some encouraging signs in Hosmer's performance. His contact numbers and line drive percentage didn't drop off in 2012, so it's not a case of him being just overmatched, and a .255 batting average on balls in play isn't likely to be repeated going forward. ZiPS has him hitting .273/.336/.435, a perfectly good bounceback. I think he'll be even better and wouldn't be shocked at all if he returned to the .300 mark.

[h=3]Dustin Ackley, 2B, age 24[/h]
Like Eric Hosmer, the BABIP gods weren't kind to Dustin Ackley in 2012, his .265 figure being more akin to what you'd see from a 40-year-old slugger with bum knees and a bad back. Safeco Field, a notoriously difficult park to hit in, certainly didn't help matters for Ackley, but considering the fact that he hit .224/.293/.365 on the road, he can't completely blame the pitcher's paradise for 2012.

Still, Ackley has an excellent pedigree, is still fairly young, and though Safeco will always put a damper on his statistics he's a versatile enough hitter that the park generally won't hurt him as much as a right-handed power hitter like Jesus Montero. Don't forget about Ackley's left ankle, which caused him a great deal of trouble this year, certainly not helping a swing that looked increasingly awkward as the season went on. This has been a consistent problem for Ackley, but he had a bone spur that had been long troubling him removed in October, and is expected to suffer no long-term consequences.

ZiPS has Ackley at .247/.322/.373, 3.3 WAR, and the best Mariners position player in 2013. I agree but I think he has more power upside than the computer does, though even with the Safeco fences moved in, the majority of his homers will be on the road.

[h=3]Brett Lawrie, 3B, age 22[/h]
Like Ackley, Lawrie also had his second season in the majors marred by nagging injuries. After missing time in spring training due to a problematic groin, Lawrie was hitting .290/.336/.424 through the middle of June and continuing to play better defense than his scouting reports thought he would. Then came the parade of aches and pains, with Lawrie missing time with knee soreness, lower back pain, a calf injury sustained after slamming into a railing going after a foul ball, and an oblique injury that ruined his August. (While I've never had an oblique injury, I expect feeling like someone punched you in the gut probably has at least a minor effect on your power.)

It's too early to call Lawrie injury-prone, so I'm very optimistic about his 2013 season. ZiPS has him at a .275/.332/.461, 4.1 WAR mean projection for next year, essentially All-Star level performance. It's not hard to see why, considering Lawrie hit 27 homers between Triple-A and the majors at age 21.

[h=3]Ivan Nova, RHP, age 25[/h]
Going into 2012, the New York Yankees looked to have the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in 2011's AL Rookie of the Year voting in their rotation. However, one of them, Michael Pineda, didn't even make it to April, and the other, Nova, followed up a 16-4, 3.70 rookie campaign with an ERA a hair above 5 and didn't even make the postseason roster.

While I'd be skeptical about putting money down betting on a complete recovery from Pineda any time soon -- the words "shoulder" and "surgery" being a frightening combination in any sentence about a pitcher -- I'm considerably more optimistic about Nova.

He's been a maddening pitcher to project so far in his career, but looking at him, all the pieces have been there for him to be a dependable No. 2 starter. Above-average fastball velocity? Check. Keeps the ball down and in the park? Check. Misses bats? Check. Decent control? Check. Slider with mean bite? Check.

The problem with Nova is that he's yet to do all of these things simultaneously. Going from 5.3 K/9 to 8.1 K/9, as he did from 2011 to 2012, is generally a marvelous thing for pitchers, but Nova went from outperforming his peripheral numbers to underperforming, and even when striking out more batters, did a lot of things wrong that he didn't in 2011. The fastball stayed up too often, resulting in his putting on impromptu home run derbies for weeks at a time. His slider still had occasional sharpness, but also long runs when it was about as exciting as boiled celery.

Nova missed some time due to shoulder soreness and came back with a more compact windup. He looked good in his return game against the Rays, but failed to make it through five innings in his final two starts of the season, when the Yankees were trying to put away the O's.

ZiPS is pessimistic about Nova given his struggles last year, pegging him at a 4.83 ERA, but my gut says he beats that by at least a half-run. Now, my gut also tells me to eat way too many buffalo wings, but I remain intrigued by Nova despite his recent struggles. At various times, he's shown the ingredients of being a terrific pitcher. The Yankees have so far stuck to their self-imposed salary cap, so the team will give him every chance to put things together in 2013. I think he will.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Hot Stove notebook

Vargas, Pierzynski, Angels hitters on rise; Edwin Jackson's value falls

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Sometimes, it's the beneath-the-radar offseason moves that result in intriguing fantasy baseball draft day values.

Such was the case with Wednesday's Los Angeles Angels-Seattle Mariners trade, which was widely reported a "needs" swap for both teams, overshadowed by Monday's far-larger, seven-player R.A. Dickey trade.

The truth, however, is that perhaps no player who changed uniforms this week increased in fantasy value more than Jason Vargas, whom the Mariners sent to the Angels in exchange for Kendrys Morales.


Think about the "need" Vargas filled: The Angels, who lost three-fifths of their 2012 rotation this winter due to the trade of Ervin Santana and departures of Zack Greinke and Dan Haren to free agency, moved quickly to acquire Tommy Hanson and sign Joe Blanton, and in adding Vargas they might have gotten their best offseason acquisition of the three. Claim if you wish that he was a product of Seattle's pitcher-friendly ballpark; the truth is that Vargas is a brilliant fit for the Angels because of his own and his new team's strengths.

A career late bloomer -- his first full season in a big-league rotation came as a 27-year-old in his third professional organization -- Vargas is a soft-tossing, fly ball pitcher who tends to be the product of his surroundings. In the past three seasons combined he didn't throw a single pitch faster than 91 mph. His changeup is by far his most valuable pitch, limiting opposing hitters to .188/.234/.270 rates during that span. In addition, his 44.6 percent fly ball rate during that span ranked 12th-highest among 170 qualified starting pitchers and was substantially higher than the major league average of 36.3 percent.

Now think about Vargas' new team: By trading Morales, the Angels have opened the designated hitter role for all-power, no-glove Mark Trumbo and therefore a full-time outfield spot for Peter Bourjos. With Bourjos and fellow glove man Mike Trout manning two-thirds of the Angels' outfield, Vargas has about the best defense behind him that a fly ball pitcher could ask for.

As for the ballpark, be aware that Angel Stadium of Anaheim isn't that much less a pitchers' park than Safeco Field, especially going forward now that the Mariners have shrunken Safeco's outfield dimensions. From 2010-12, Angel Stadium didn't place higher than 23rd in either runs scored or home runs in any individual year; Safeco Field ranked 13th in home runs in 2011, though in its defense as a pitcher's heaven, it ranked 29th or 30th in either category in both 2009 and 2010.

A couple more Vargas notes that might have you boosting him in your rankings as I have by 10 spots in mine: He's one of only nine pitchers -- ERA qualifiers only -- to have improved both his strikeout rate (calculated as a percentage of total batters faced) and strikeout-to-walk rates in each of the past two seasons; his well-hit average allowed -- that's the percentage of at-bats against that resulted in hard contact -- has declined in each of the past two years; and his ground ball rate has risen in each of the past two years, helping slightly diminish concerns of extreme fly-ball leanings that could cause untimely home runs.

Picking Vargas means being selective with matchups, but as a back-of-your staff option, even in shallow mixed leagues, he's worth consideration.

Speaking of Bourjos and Trumbo, their fantasy values experience an uptick thanks to the deal, as both will occupy more appropriate roles for their defensive skills. In Bourjos' case, he's ticketed for everyday duty, especially with Vernon Wells on the trade block himself, and that might mean as many as 500-plus plate appearances to help pad his stolen bases and runs scored numbers. Remember, Bourjos was a 22-steal, 72-run performer as recently as 2011, ranking 47th among outfielders on our Player Rater. Thanks to the Morales deal, he now cracks my top 75 outfielders at No. 72, and the only reason I haven't ranked him higher is that it's not a guarantee that he'll indeed top 500 PAs.

As for Trumbo, while it's a small sample size, that he managed .310/.376/.571 rates in his 22 games as a DH last season hints that he's not at all uncomfortable with such an arrangement. Moving all over the diamond last season -- he made multiple starts at first base, third base, left field, right field and DH -- might have been an unnecessary distraction, and his power is indeed legitimate. If there's any drawback to the move, it's that he may no longer earn first base or outfield eligibility come 2014, which is a negative for his owners in deeper dynasty leagues.


As with Vargas, don't assume Morales' fantasy value is destined to decline as a result of the trade, despite his move to Safeco. As noted above, the probable park factors of Angel Stadium and Safeco might be more similar than you think in 2013, and one advantage for Morales is that he'll no longer have to fight for at-bats at first base or DH in Seattle, whereas he did in Los Angeles. He's clearly a better hitter than incumbent Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak, and fellow DH candidate Jesus Montero has the capability to catch, so the Mariners will make every effort to play Morales every day at either of those positions.

In Morales' defense, he's a lifetime .292/.346/.558 hitter in 34 games at Safeco Field, and while again the small-sample caveat applies, he's a powerful-enough hitter to clear any fence. To that point, his average home run traveled 405 feet in distance; that's Jack Cust (414 average between 2010-12) and Russell Branyan (408)-caliber power, except that Morales is a far more complete hitter than either. The primary knock on Morales will be that a weaker supporting cast will mean fewer runs and RBIs, but as he'll probably come to the plate 600-plus times rather than the 522 he did in 2012, that'll more than make up for it. He was my No. 24 first baseman before the trade and remains 24th after it.

Smoak's owners -- those who aim to fill first base late in AL-only leagues, presumably -- have the most to worry about with Morales in town. A former top prospect, Smoak hasn't developed anywhere near as quickly as the Mariners had hoped, his .660 OPS the past three seasons combined second-worst among first basemen with at least 500 PAs at the position. He might have to settle for a backup role, making him scarcely worth attention even in AL-only formats.

Montero's prospects at catching the requisite number of games to qualify at the position for 2014, however, increase.

A.J. Pierzynski joins Texas Rangers


Anytime the American League's reigning home run champion at an individual defensive position signs with a team that calls a hitter's heaven its home, fantasy owners are sure to get excited.


So let's preface the discussion of A.J. Pierzynski's one-year contract with the Texas Rangers with a prediction: He will not hit as many as 27 home runs -- an AL-best 26 of which came as a catcher -- in 2013.

He will, however, again probably fly beneath the radar in mixed-league fantasy drafts, a perhaps-outside-the-top-10 selection with an excellent chance at maintaining top-10 value. Whether he is worthy of your consideration depends entirely on your opinion of the above home run prediction.

No statistic exemplifies the fluky nature of Pierzynski's power outburst in 2012 than his home run/fly ball percentage which, regardless of source, was the highest it had been in any season in his 15-year career. Our pitch-tracking tool had it at 16.7 percent, or more than 10 percent higher than he managed from 2009-11 combined (6.2 percent), while FanGraphs had it at 18.6 percent, or double his career rate of 9.3 percent and well higher than his previous career high of 14.2 percent, set back in 2005 in his first year with the White Sox. Those came in spite of no substantial shift in his approach at the plate, his propensity to make hard contact nor a sizable increase to his fly-ball rate. A whopping 18 of his 27 home runs came at U.S. Cellular Field, arguably the most homer-friendly venue in the AL.

Thanks to his signing with the Rangers, however, Pierzynski improves slightly in terms of runs scored and RBIs, as the Rangers averaged 0.37 runs per game more than did the White Sox in 2012. It's that -- not his power output -- which presents him his greatest chance at a repeat of his No. 5 standing among catchers on our 2012 Player Rater. That said, remember that he'll play the 2013 season at 36 years old with declining defensive skills.

Initially ranked 16th among catchers, which assumed his chances of signing with a team in a hitter-friendly venue weren't this good, Pierzynski improves four spots to 12th, right outside my top 250 overall.

Chicago Cubs add Edwin Jackson, Carlos Villanueva


Just as the Angels have been forced to do this winter, the Chicago Cubs have done a near-full makeover of their starting five, first signing free agent right-handers Scott Baker and Scott Feldman, now adding fellow right-handed free agents Edwin Jackson and Carlos Villanueva. The grand cost total for these four free agent additions: eight total years for $73.5 million.

Yet despite their price tags, not one of these pitchers is especially likely to make a noticeable fantasy impact.

Jackson is the "marquee" name, in that he was the No. 51 starting pitcher on the 2012 Player Rater, he had the game's 30th-best qualified WHIP (1.22) and he has a no-hitter on his career resume. He's also the only one of the four who, health willing, is guaranteed a spot in the Cubs' starting five all year, thanks to both the team's hefty, four-year, $52-million investment in him, as well as his consistent track record of filling innings -- he has made at least 31 starts for six straight seasons despite having pitched for six different teams during that time.

Jackson did improve in two key areas last season, setting new personal bests in terms of his strikeout (21.3 percent of total batters faced, 7.97 per nine innings) and walk rates (2.75 per nine innings). Still, besides the label "innings eater," his reputation in fantasy is clear: Completely unpredictable. No statistic tells it better than this: He has a 4.49 ERA against losing teams in his career, but a 4.33 ERA against .500 or winning teams. And now he's moving to Chicago and Wrigley Field, where park factors can be similarly unpredictable from year to year.

As a result of the move, Jackson drops nine spots in my starting pitching rankings, from 38th to 47th, and 34 spots overall, from 160th to 194th. That's partly due to the ballpark but also what will be clearly less run support.

Villanueva might have been a sleeper in NL-only leagues -- or AL-only had he landed there -- if not for his signing with a team that can't promise him a rotation spot. With Jackson, Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, Baker and Feldman also in the mix, Villanueva most obviously fits as the same swingman type he was with the Toronto Blue Jays, though considering the injury and performance histories of those five, he'll almost assuredly make double-digit starts.

Keep in mind that Villanueva has a career 3.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP against losing teams, compared to 4.97 and 1.32 against .500 or winning squads. He has all the makings of a matchups type, meaning he shouldn't be forgotten in the final rounds in NL-only formats, and certainly he should be scooped up for streaming purposes in the event when he moves into the Cubs' rotation.

 

[HacheMan]

Top 10 for '13: Tough calls after first three

Eric Karabell

Nobody had ever accomplished quite what Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout did statistically during the 2012 season. So it's not merely reasonable, but expected, that some regression is coming in 2013. I mean, let's get real. Trout was incredible, we'll never forget it. The question when judging his immediate future value is figuring out to what degree a few of his numbers will fall -- most likely home runs, batting average and runs scored -- and whether it's still enough to make him the first pick in 2013 fantasy drafts.
But in my book, he's still No. 1.


<offer>There are three clear candidates for the first overall pick, and the fact is, fantasy owners can't go wrong with any of them. Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun were pretty awesome in 2012 as well. But why can't those fellows regress some, too? Cabrera reached career highs in home runs and RBIs. I don't think he'll turn into Ty Wigginton anytime soon, but we think he's going to improve? Braun also hit a career mark in home runs. I said and wrote it a year ago and will again that I'd take Braun over Cabrera because of the stolen bases. It's a big difference, and life is much easier when your power guys supply steals, too, so you don't have to overdraft the Michael Bourn types. I have Braun at No. 2.</offer>

Trout keeps my top spot because even with some regression, perhaps to "merely" a .300 batting average and 20 home runs, I don't see many people viewing the 49 stolen bases as flukish. In fact, I see more steals coming. Trout's high strikeout rate, which he could certainly improve since he's all of 21 years old, as well as his high BABIP seem to suggest him hitting .326 again will be difficult. The 30 home runs in five months was another delightful surprise. Lop Trout's batting average to .300 and the home runs to 20 and he still would have finished third on the Player Rater, behind Braun and Cabrera, a tick ahead of Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen. If Trout hits .300 with 20 home runs, 49 steals and 129 runs scored, I certainly wouldn't be disappointed in taking him first, even if another Braun 30/30 season and another Cabrera Triple Crown makes them worth a tad more on the Rater. I want the extra steals, the potentially league-leading steals.

Ultimately, we're splitting hairs here. In many seasons, there's an obvious No. 1 choice, including Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols in many of the past 10-plus seasons. But I don't think it's so obvious in 2013; you can't go wrong with any of those three.

With that, here is my top 10 for 2013. Baseball will return soon, with pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in a matter of weeks. I can't wait.

[h=3]1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels[/h]
He wouldn't be in this spot if I thought he was going to steal "only" 30 bases. Anyone else remember those incredible Eric Davis seasons, including the one with 27 home runs and 80 stolen bases, and another with 37 homers and 50 steals? Wouldn't it be awesome if Trout, even sacrificing some batting average, did that? Frankly, Trout doesn't need to contend for a batting title to earn this top spot.

[h=3]2. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Braun was my top choice this time last year, and people thought I was nuts, citing a certain scandal and trying to glean how it would torch Braun's stats. I don't think people are concerned anymore. Look, I'm fine with Cabrera, too, and the third base eligibility is nice, but when you lock up a big power/speed guy early, it changes the rest of your draft.

[h=3]3. Miguel Cabrera, 3BDetroit Tigers[/h]
Cabrera hit 44 home runs with 139 RBIs and 4 steals in 2012. From 2009 to 2011, he averaged 34 home runs, 111 RBIs and 4 steals from 2009 to 2011, and in 2011 he finished seventh on the Player Rater. Yeah, I know, he didn't have Prince Fielder batting behind him then, and now he does, but there could be regression coming here as well.

[h=3]4. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
The mild concern with McCutchen is that his batting average (.327 in 2012) will take a hit and that his terrible stolen base percentage -- he was 20-for-32 on steal attempts -- will result in fewer tries, but since I can't be sure the next guy will be healthy (or stay that way), McCutchen checks in at No. 4.

[h=3]5. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
The first four guys just seem more reliable, even a guy entering his second full season (Trout). Kemp dealt with injuries for the first time in 2012, and it shortened his season and impacted his swing as well as his ability to run. Offseason shoulder surgery is not expected to linger into this season, and certainly he's a potential 30-homer/30-steal guy, though I'd bet it'll be more like 35/25.

[h=3]6. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees[/h]
No middle infielder can be counted on to play every day, hit for power and bat .300 every season, except this one. In this case, the reliability -- he finished 17th overall on the Player Rater in 2012 and 18th in 2011 -- from such a miserable fantasy position trumps the relative lack of stolen bases.

[h=3]7. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels[/h]
I don't think it's living in the past to continue believing in this guy. His 2012 season was the worst of his career, and it still netted 30 home runs, 105 RBIs, eight steals and a .285 batting average. And his April was abysmal (.217, 0 HR, 4 RBI). If you believe in lineup protection, which I usually don't put much stock in, then the Josh Hamilton addition should vault Pujols, as it did for Cabrera. Ultimately, this remains the safest first baseman in the game, and he's not too old to get back to producing MVP-type stats.

[h=3]8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies[/h]
I realize this choice goes against the grain, so to speak -- my wise colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft ranks Tulowitzki third at his position and 37th overall -- but a year ago, Tulo was the sixth pick in ESPN live drafts (ADP). He battled injuries in 2012, but I don't see why he can't go right back to hitting .300 with 30 home runs. How many shortstops can do this? Tulo's durability is a concern, of course, but from 2009 to 2011, in an average of 139 games per season, he averaged 30 home runs, 97 RBIs and a .304 batting average. I'm still buying, obviously.

[h=3]9. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies[/h]Yes, I'm buying on Tulo's teammate as well. Who cares if a major portion of his numbers came in home games? That might be an issue in head-to-head formats, but not in standard leagues. His line the past three seasons: .313, 27 home runs, 98 RBIs, 22 steals. That works just fine for me.

[h=3]10. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
Bautista beats out Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Buster Posey and Justin Verlander, names you'll found in other top-10 rankings, because, as with Tulo, I don't see why Joey Bats can't lead the majors in home runs again, just as he did in 2010 and 2011. Word is he's healthy again, and there was little wrong with his power and plate discipline last season. Might he hit .250? Perhaps, but he might also hit 50 home runs. I'm expecting 40 blasts and a .280 batting average.

So who just misses? With Fielder, you get durability, consistent power and batting average, but a three-year average of 33-104 and .291 isn't so noteworthy at fantasy baseball's deepest position. … Votto seems a tad overrated. He hit for average in his injury-shortened 2012, and if your league counts OBP he's a top-5 guy, but the home runs were way down. In fact, he has hit 30 home runs just once, and the difference-maker, his stolen bases, has dwindled. … I don't think I've taken a catcher in the first round since Mike Piazza was in his prime. Posey was awesome, but catchers get hurt way too much to invest in one this early. I'll take Yadier Molina in Round 13 instead. … And I continue to avoid pitchers in Round 1. Verlander is my top starter, but there's not enough offense out there, particularly in relation to starting pitching depth, to invest in a pitcher that early.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Dynasty league draft: Rounds 1-10[/h][h=3]Who are the key building blocks of fantasy teams now and in the future?[/h]
By AJ Mass | ESPN.comEvery year, once the champagne from the World Series celebration has been finished off and a parade-load of ticker tape has been cleaned up, the annual player carousel springs into action.

This year, a total of 174 free agents hit the market in search of a potential new employer. For every Anibal Sanchez and Angel Pagan who opt to re-sign with their current team, there are just as many, if not more, players like Josh Hamilton and B.J. Upton who decide to take their services elsewhere, leaving hometown fans sporting jerseys that bear their names in the lurch.
Throw in player movement as a result of trades, and some major league rosters look like they've been picked out of a hat. Miami Marlins fans, you know what we're talking about.
The revolving door nature of offseason player movement is a huge reason why more fantasy baseball players have started to turn to dynasty league formats. Dynasty leagues are more than just keeper leagues, where each owner may get to retain a handful of players each season. They can truly give you a chance to root for a player for as long as your heart desires.

Once a guy is on your roster, he can stay there until he retires.

Did you take a chance with a late-round flier on Mariano Rivera in 1995? Congratulations. You've enjoyed 18 seasons and 608 career saves as a result. Of course, picks can just as easily backfire on you. Remember Brien Taylor, anyone?

Of course, when you start a dynasty league from scratch you have to be of two minds. Sure, you want to create a team full of hot prospects and young players with tons of upside who may become the building blocks of a successful team for years to come, but you also have to draft enough established players who can help you today.

It's all well and good to be eyeballing a guy like the Seattle Mariners' Taijuan Walker, but if he ends up taking another two to three seasons to make the rotation, you can't be selecting him too early on in the proceedings while leaving scores of potential 12-game winners out there for your fellow owners to snatch up.


The ESPN Fantasy staff has decided to play general manager and take part in this delicate balancing act by holding our first-ever start-from-scratch dynasty league draft. We'll use a snake draft to stock a 40-man roster of players with the only caveat being that we need to be able to fill a standard 23-man lineup.


Other than that, though, we can draft current starters, minor league studs-in-waiting, guys currently playing in Japan, Mexico or Cuba, or even that eighth-grader with a nasty slider we saw last week at our local field.


We'll be presenting you with the results of our efforts over the next few weeks, starting with the first 10 rounds in today's report. Rounds 11-20 will be published next Monday. Rounds 21-30 will be unveiled on Jan. 28. On Feb. 4, the dynasty draft wraps up with the reveal of Rounds 31-40.


Our participants, listed in our selected-at-random first-round draft order, are as follows: Nate Ravitz, Tristan H. Cockcroft, David Schoenfield, Matthew Berry, Eric Karabell, me, Pierre Becquey, Brendan Roberts, Keith Lipscomb and James Quintong.

So without any further ado, we present each team's roster after the first quarter of the draft:

[h=4]Nate Ravitz rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	1	Mike Trout, OF, LAA	21
2	20	David Wright, 3B, NYM	30
3	21	Justin Verlander, SP, Det	30
4	40	Jurickson Profar, 2B, Tex	20
5	41	Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC	23
6	60	Carlos Santana, C/DH/1B, Cle	26
7	61	Ian Desmond, SS, Wsh	27
8	80	Yu Darvish, SP, Tex	26
9	81	Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC	24
10	100	Oscar Taveras, OF, StL	20

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Nobody should be surprised by the selection of Trout at No. 1 overall, as he'll be a frequent resident of that spot in both one-and-done and keeper league formats. Ravitz has done a decent job of filling out the greater portion of an "Opening Day lineup," giving himself a solid foundation for a competitive team right out of the gate. Taveras is definitely a pick "for the future" but could well be in the mix for 2013 Rookie of the Year if he manages to get called up early enough in the season.

Taking Verlander ahead of Strasburg? Ravitz defends the move thusly: "Given the way pitchers get hurt and the way their performance can be affected by changes in environment -- new teammates, different ballpark, etc. -- it's a fool's errand to try to project anything past the next three or four years. As long as that span doesn't take Verlander too far past his physical prime, I ascribe little to no value to youth when it comes to starting pitchers."

There's a lot of buzz with Profar in Texas, and nobody truly knows exactly how much playing time the kid will get this season or what position (second base or shortstop) he may ultimately end up playing. But Ravitz clearly feels the talent is there: "He should be one of the top 3 in fantasy within two to three years at whichever middle infield position he ultimately settles."
[h=4]Tristan Cockcroft rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	2	Ryan Braun, OF, Mil	29
2	19	Starlin Castro, SS, ChC	23
3	22	Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea	26
4	39	Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tex	30
5	42	Matt Wieters, C, Bal	26
6	59	Billy Butler, DH/1B, KC	26
7	62	Anthony Rizzo, 1B, ChC	23
8	79	Wil Myers, OF, TB	22
9	82	Matt Moore, SP, TB	23
10	99	Ike Davis, 1B, NYM	26

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The first five rounds are a strong start for Cockcroft's team, provided of course, that Castro lives up to his power potential and Kinsler's decline in home runs doesn't continue any further into the abyss. Myers should debut this year, it just depends on how soon. In a redraft league, taking him this early might be mock-worthy. In a dynasty format? There's no issue at all.

However, three first basemen in the last five rounds certainly is a head-scratcher. Cockcroft defends the Butler pick strongly, "I have Billy Butler rated two rounds sooner in terms of my keeper rankings, so he was a no-brainer in the sixth. He turns 27 on April 18 and is one of the safest .300-25 bets for the next five years outside of the top 25. Only three players in baseball have reached both of those plateaus in each of the past three seasons [Braun, Cabrera and Cano]."

However, with 20-20 hindsight, he would not have selected Rizzo at No. 62. "Frankly, had I known Davis would last until the 10th -- and I SHOULD'VE known that -- I'd have passed on Rizzo and taken Desmond Jennings. I had Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt and Davis somewhat closely ranked, all within four rounds of one another, and Davis would've simply been the better bargain."

[h=4]Dave Schoenfield rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	3	Bryce Harper, OF, Wsh	20
2	18	Jason Heyward, OF, Atl	23
3	23	Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD	25
4	38	Manny Machado, 3B, Bal	20
5	43	Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF	23
6	58	Austin Jackson, OF, Det	26
7	63	Chris Sale, SP, CWS	24
8	78	Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Bos	24
9	83	Salvador Perez, C, KC	22
10	98	Max Scherzer, SP, Det	28

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This is a team that is clearly looking ahead to better days, as taking so many neophytes so early in the draft is a clear sign that 2013 may not be the year that Schoenfield raises that championship banner. However, his pitching staff is definitely off to a better start than most teams in this league and could well dominate that aspect of the game if that trend continues.

Is Bryce Harper really the No. 3 player in baseball? "Maybe not in 2013," Schoenfield admits. "But I couldn't resist passing him up in a dynasty league draft. After hitting .270 with 22 home runs, 18 steals and 98 runs as a rookie -- a 19-year-old rookie -- he's going to improve on all those numbers. I can see 30 bombs, 25 steals, 115 runs and maybe close to 100 RBIs depending on where he hits in the lineup."

Manny Machado was clearly another pick with an eye on the 2015 crown. Schoenfield's take? "Machado is still developing at the plate, but will hold his own in 2013, with projections having him at 15 to 20 home runs, 10 to 15 steals, .265 or so at the plate. Once the Orioles move him to shortstop in a year or two, he'll be a fantasy stud."

[h=4]Matthew Berry rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	4	Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det	29
2	17	Evan Longoria, 3B/DH, TB	27
3	24	Stephen Strasburg, SP, Wsh	24
4	37	Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex	24
5	44	Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cle	25
6	57	Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY	32
7	64	Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Ari	25
8	77	Mark Trumbo, OF/DH/1B, LAA	27
9	84	Jesus Montero, DH/C, Sea	23
10	97	James Shields, SP, KC	31

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A very solid 10 rounds from Berry, as it seems that this is the "sweet spot" in the draft. It seemed that every time Berry's turn came around, he had just had his "on-deck list" trimmed by its remaining names in the 2-3 picks that preceded his. Yet, there always seemed to be one last player left in the appropriate tier still there for the taking.

For example, with pick No. 84, Berry was all set to take Matt Moore, but he went at No. 82. No worries, Salvador Perez was next on his list. Naturally, that virtually guaranteed his being snatched up at No. 83. So Berry went with Montero, whom he calls "the last dynasty worthy catcher left. He's just 23 and I'm hoping that Seattle's fences being moved in help even more."

Berry seems to be loading up at the corners and I couldn't help but wonder if he regrets picking third baseman Longoria immediately after taking Cabrera, who also mans the hot corner, in Round 1. The short answer was no. "Longoria has top-5 potential at a relatively scarce position and is young enough that he made sense to me as best player available towards the end of the second round, regardless of who else I had on my team," says Berry. And furthermore, Berry felt that at only 27, that "truly insane season" is just on the horizon.

[h=4]Eric Karabell rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	5	Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pit	26
2	16	Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, LAA	33
3	25	Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos	29
4	36	Adrian Beltre, 3B/DH, Tex	33
5	45	Brett Lawrie, 3B, Tor	23
6	56	Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin	31
7	65	Michael Bourn, OF, FA	30
8	76	Zack Greinke, SP, LAD	29
9	85	Allen Craig, 1B/OF, StL	28
10	96	Alex Gordon, OF, KC	29

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If you had asked me before the draft which owner was going to (seemingly) ignore the fact that this was a dynasty draft and simply draft the best team for 2013 without regard to the future, Karabell would have been my pick. I've been working alongside him long enough to know he's not going to pass up players like Adrian Beltre simply because he's on "the wrong side of 30."


While that wasn't an active strategy going in, when asked about it, Karabell certainly seemed to confess. "I'm not saying that my colleagues are doing this, but there's a tendency in startup dynasty leagues to forget about trying to win the first few seasons. When productive players slip well beyond their normal draft slots, it's hard to pass up. Plus, it's not like Beltre is old. He's not A-Rod. Beltre is among the best in the game and should keep hitting for another three or four seasons."

Karabell also wasn't worried about where Michael Bourn, currently a free agent, might end up, expecting him to steal 40-plus bases for the next five years regardless of what uniform he wears. "He was a steal for ME, especially if his power jump wasn't just a contract push."

[h=4]AJ Mass rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	6	Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Mia	23
2	15	Prince Fielder, 1B, Det	28
3	26	Jay Bruce, OF, Cin	25
4	35	Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atl	23
5	46	Jose Altuve, 2B, Hou	22
6	55	Gio Gonzalez, SP, Wsh	27
7	66	Wilin Rosario, C, Col	24
8	75	Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin	27
9	86	Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atl	24
10	95	Kyle Seager, 3B, Sea	25

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My preparation for this draft was to take my personal player values for 2013 and then to adjust them (either up or down) by a percentage of how much above or below the average age at each position each player currently was. So while I might like Matt Kemp or Josh Hamilton a bit more than Giancarlo Stanton for this upcoming season -- especially given the dearth of other bats in Miami's lineup -- in the long run I'd expect Stanton to be far more valuable, and worthy of a first-round selection.

Obviously, Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve may be considered reaches at their positions for this year, but I'm also counting on some veterans with 2013 upsides slipping through the cracks in these first few rounds. There's still plenty of work left to be done to make this a viable contender, especially in the middle infield, but there is still plenty of draft remaining.

In a one-and-done league, I typically avoid closers until much later on, but there are really only a handful of reliable relievers out there under the age of 25, and few are at the top of their game as is Craig Kimbrel. If I can get five years of 30 or more saves out of him, then he's more than worth a ninth-round selection, because I can list on one hand the current closers I have any faith will still be holding down the fort in 2015 and beyond.
[h=4]Pierre Becquey rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	7	Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col	27
2	14	Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col	28
3	27	Jose Bautista, OF, Tor	32
4	34	Edwin Encarnacion, DH/1B, Tor	30
5	47	Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Wsh	28
6	54	Matt Cain, SP, SF	28
7	67	Billy Hamilton, SS, Cin	22
8	74	Kris Medlen, RP/SP, Atl	27
9	87	Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cin	25
10	94	Matt Harvey, SP, NYM	24

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This is going to be a 40-man roster when all is said and done, so having a few "real-life" teammates is inevitable. Still, with his first 10 picks, Becquey ended up with three natural duos on his roster, including his first two selections, Gonzalez and Tulowitzki. Did he have any concerns about that?

"The picks were independent of the team. In Round 1, I needed to decide between CarGo, Upton and Kemp. In the end, I took CarGo because I believe his best season is ahead of him -- which I don't believe is true for Kemp -- and he doesn't have the warts that Justin Upton's down 2012 gave him," Becquey explains. As for Tulo, his injury history makes him a bargain, as does his age and position. "Shortstop is UGLY ... so I took Tulo and ended up with what I believe to be TWO first-rounders."

As for his pitching picks, Becquey does love himself some strikeouts. That's why he closed out his first 10 selections with Chapman and Harvey. What makes Harvey stand out? "He has already been guaranteed a spot in the 2013 rotation, had 60 quality innings under his belt and hasn't struck out fewer hitters than he's pitched innings in his professional career. This is 2013's Chris Sale."

[h=4]Brendan Roberts rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	8	Buster Posey, C/1B, SF	26
2	13	Josh Hamilton, OF, LAA	31
3	28	Jose Reyes, SS, Tor	29
4	33	Adam Jones, OF, Bal	27
5	48	Chase Headley, 3B, SD	28
6	53	Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD	30
7	68	Jered Weaver, SP, LAA	30
8	73	Joe Mauer, C/DH/1B, Min	29
9	88	Mat Latos, SP, Cin	25
10	93	Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil	27

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Roberts is putting together a team of players that, at least to me, seem older than they actually are. With Hamilton, Gonzalez, Mauer and Reyes, he's doing a waltz around that 30-year-old line in the sand, but not straying too far over it just yet into Victor Martinez territory.

Even his "young" players aren't all that young. Adam Jones is 27, Chase Headley is 28, and both had their first 30-homer season in 2012. That's exactly why Roberts covets them so: "I believe they're just getting started. In this draft, while it seemed others chose youngsters with high (but unproven) upside, I aimed to choose players in the beginning of that little 5- or 6-year window known as their prime years. In other words, I'm looking for 26- to 29-year-old guys who have already shown what they can do."

It's true that many owners forget that even though you can keep any players you draft for their entire careers, there's nothing that says you have to do so. Down the line, you can easily attempt to improve your team through trading and future drafts of not-yet-on-the-radar stars of tomorrow. "I just don't have the patience to wait three years to win a league. I aim to do well the next several years and then trust my abilities beyond that."

[h=4]Keith Lipscomb rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	9	Matt Kemp, OF, LAD	28
2	12	Justin Upton, OF, Ari	25
3	29	David Price, SP, TB	27
4	32	Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, LAD	29
5	49	Ben Zobrist, OF/2B/SS, TB	31
6	52	Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos	29
7	69	Desmond Jennings, OF, TB	26
8	72	Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cle	27
9	89	Adam Wainwright, SP, StL	31
10	92	Cliff Lee, SP, Phi	34

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Like Roberts, Lipscomb is also a "play for today and worry about tomorrow when it comes" kind of general manager. When in doubt, he'll always take the older guy who he knows can help him over the next few seasons, and that philosophy is clearly reflected on his current roster.

Still, while you never can be totally sure what a rookie will give you, veterans can have question marks too. If Kemp can return to 30-30 and if Upton lives up to his MVP-potential and if Hanley Ramirez can better his second-half numbers without reverting to those of his first-half ... then Lipscomb's team may well succeed in 2013.

Adding more "boom or bust" guys like Ellsbury and Jennings to the mix makes it all the more important for a solid core in the pitching rotation for Lipscomb, and with Price, Wainwright and Lee, he should have one. As he puts it, "I wanted to have three starters I could count on for a quality outing almost every time out and not worry about age in the process. Surprise pitchers seem to emerge more so than hitters each season, so I felt that getting a few historically strong guys to anchor your staff gives you a nice base and you can try to project some of those surprises later in the draft."

[h=4]James Quintong rounds 1-10[/h]

Round	Overall	Player	Age
1	10	Joey Votto, 1B, Cin	29
2	11	Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY	30
3	30	Cole Hamels, SP, Phi	29
4	31	B.J. Upton, OF, Atl	28
5	50	Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF	26
6	51	Yoenis Cespedes, OF/DH, Oak	27
7	70	Matt Holliday, OF, StL	33
8	71	CC Sabathia, SP, NYY	32
9	90	Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi	34
10	91	Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Wsh	26

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Picking at the tail of the snake is always a difficult task, since you have so many players who fly off the board between your current turn and the next one. Make a reach and miss? You may never recover. That's why it's not surprising to see so many tried and true names coming from Quintong and the No. 10 slot in the draft.


With Cano and Rollins, he's probably a lock to have the oldest double-play combo up the middle. But that doesn't scare Quintong a bit. "Rollins may be old, but he's still very productive, even if he isn't at the major star level he might've been a few years ago. And while his age obviously drops his value in this draft, you still want to win this league now."

Personally, I shied away from Cespedes because of his seeming fragility which limited him to only 102 outfield starts, though he did play an additional 26 games as a DH. Quintong was not dissuaded by those numbers. "I was impressed with his overall stats last year as a rookie, and I think he's still got plenty of room to grow. Interestingly, he hit a lot better at home -- usually a pitchers' park -- than on the road, which probably will bode well for the future."

As for the future of this dynasty draft, be sure to check back next Monday for the results of Rounds 11-20 to see how these teams continue to take shape.

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Report: Sleeper options emerging

Eric Karabell

PrintBy mid-January, fantasy baseball owners should be thinking about their potential early-round draft picks, where they intend to get power and speed from, sleeper starting pitchers and, yes, to some degree, how they can build a reasonable bullpen without the likes of Craig Kimbrel and Mariano Rivera. Kimbrel has been amazing the past few seasons, and Rivera seemingly since the Eisenhower administration, and still, I'm far more likely to find the next Tom Wilhelmsen lurking on free agency than invest in saves before the 12th round.

More than a third of the closers from Opening Day last season failed to keep their role for the duration of the season, and quite a few of those pitchers couldn't even keep their jobs through April. Play the waiver-wire game in April/May and you'll find Wilhelmsen, Ernesto Frieri, Casey Janssen and, yes, even the fellow who finished first among all relief pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater, Dennis Eckersl- … um, I mean Fernando Rodney.

<offer>For now, let's look at five teams that feature uncertainty at the back end of the bullpen, because it's never too early to start thinking about your 17th-round pick!


Detroit Tigers: Rumor is the organization loves fireballing Venezuelan Bruce Rondon, who closed effectively at three levels of the minor leagues last season. He's 22, and walks are occasionally an issue for him, but fantasy owners should know by now it's more about opportunity than skill. I mean, Antonio Alfonseca saved 129 career games! Rondon might be the next Kimbrel; Atlanta's stud closer was wild in the minors, as well. Or he could be Jordan Walden, who lost the Angels' closer job early last season. I find it hard to believe the Tigers won't sign a veteran presence at some point for insurance now that Jose Valverde is gone. Rondon is a strikeout/upside guy for the later rounds. The Tigers also could give chances to lefty Phil Coke or right-handers Joaquin Benoit -- look, there goes another home run! -- and Al Alburquerque.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Hey, sub-.500 teams get saves, too! And while I applaud the Bucs for realizing the time was nigh to unload closer Joel Hanrahan, I think they could have received more in return from the Boston Red Sox. Still, Jason Grilli, once upon a time a top starting pitching prospect, seems poised to inherit saves. Now 36, he thrived the past two seasons in a setup role. Frankly, I think it would be pretty funny if Hanrahan implodes in Beantown -- closers are overrated! -- and unheralded Mark Melancon, acquired by the Pirates in that very deal, outpitches him. It's not outrageous; Melancon was terrible in the first half of 2012, but not in the second half, and he does have closing "experience." For now, Grilli is the closer, but he's likely on a relatively short leash.

Houston Astros: I'm guessing most people can't name this team's top two save leaders from 2012. They're both elsewhere now: Brett Myers and Wilton Lopez. That doesn't leave much, but lest you forget, even 100-loss teams accrue saves. In fact, two teams even had fewer saves than last year's 107-loss Astros. Anyway, I'd say the leader in the Houston clubhouse is journeyman Jose Veras. The team has spent precious little money this offseason, probably more in reminding people it's an AL West team now, but Veras quietly got a one-year deal for $1.85 million, which labels him the bullpen's big shot. Veras has brought the strikeouts the past few years, and he's certainly more experienced than Hector Ambriz, Fernando Rodriguez or Wesley Wright. Keep a close eye on Rule 5 pick Josh Fields, a former Seattle Mariners first-rounder who throws hard and rejuvenated his stalled career at Portland and Pawtucket in 2012 (2.01 ERA, 12 saves, 12 K/9). Watch Fields seize the closer role by midseason.

Miami Marlins: The Heath Bell experience went poorly, but now he's Arizona's problem. Steve Cishek sidearmed his way to 15 saves and respectable peripheral numbers, and there doesn't seem to be much competition (lefty Mike Dunn, rehabbing Jose Ceda) for the role at this point. Of course, this wacky franchise cleans house every five minutes (yet they still signed Placido Polanco to play third base). Don't be stunned if Valverde or Bearded Brian Wilson take one-year deals to resurrect their careers. I just don't feel like Cishek is safe for 30 saves, that's all.

Cincinnati Reds: Surprise! Yes, this team employs Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall, among others, and it doesn't fit the theme of other teams covered above. However, this is a reminder that if you're drafting anytime soon -- I've already had multiple drafts -- Broxton is a risky pick, and not only for his performance/health. I just don't have faith that the Reds will keep the electric Chapman in a starting role the first time his elbow or shoulder hurts, or his fastball velocity fluctuates. Yes, I think the Cuban would be far more valuable tossing 200 innings than 70, and would help fantasy owners more as a starter -- one can always find saves -- but watch this team in March to see what they're really going to do.

There are other teams worth watching, too. It's presumed that Rivera will be fine after tearing an ACL last April, but David Robertson is a wise handcuff. The Los Angeles Angels could go with Frieri, who was terrific in 2012, or Ryan Madson, who returns from Tommy John surgery. And the Chicago Cubs welcome import Kyuji Fujikawa, perhaps the Rivera of the Japanese leagues. Also, it shouldn't be long before Carlos Marmol is walking hitters in the seventh inning or for another team.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Chart

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated January 15)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.
Prominent free agents: Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Jon Rauch, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson.

Team	<center> Closer </center>	<center> Next in line </center>	<center> Stealth </center>	<center> Looming </center>
	J.J. Putz	David Hernandez	Heath Bell	Brad Ziegler
	Craig Kimbrel	Jonny Venters	Jordan Walden	Eric O'Flaherty
	Jim Johnson	Pedro Strop	Tommy Hunter	Darren O'Day
	Joel Hanrahan	Andrew Bailey	Koji Uehara	Daniel Bard
	Carlos Marmol	Kyuji Fujikawa	James Russell	Arodys Vizcaino
	Addison Reed	Matt Thornton	Jesse Crain	Nate Jones
	Jonathan Broxton	Sean Marshall	J.J. Hoover	Jose Arredondo
	Chris Perez	Vinnie Pestano	Bryan Shaw	Matt Albers
	Rafael Betancourt	Rex Brothers	Wilton Lopez	Matt Belisle
	Phil Coke	Joaquin Benoit	Bruce Rondon	Octavio Dotel
	Jose Veras	Wesley Wright	Fernando Rodriguez	Jarred Cosart
	Greg Holland	Aaron Crow	Tim Collins	Kelvin Herrera
	Ryan Madson	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Kevin Jepsen
	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Ronald Belisario	Javy Guerra
	Steve Cishek	Mike Dunn	Ryan Webb	Jose Ceda
	John Axford	Mike Gonzalez	Jim Henderson	Fautino De Los Santos
	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Alex Burnett	Josh Roenicke
	Frank Francisco	Bobby Parnell	Josh Edgin	Jenrry Mejia
	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain	David Aardsma
	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle	Pat Neshek
	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Phillippe Aumont	Antonio Bastardo
	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Jared Hughes	Tony Watson
	Jason Motte	Edward Mujica	Mitchell Boggs	Fernando Salas
	Huston Street	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer	Andrew Cashner
	Sergio Romo	Javier Lopez	Santiago Casilla	Jeremy Affeldt
	Tom Wilhelmsen	Stephen Pryor	Lucas Luetge	Carter Capps
	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Jake McGee	Chris Archer
	Joe Nathan	Joakim Soria	Tanner Scheppers	Neftali Feliz
	Casey Janssen	Sergio Santos	Darren Oliver	Aaron Loup
	Rafael Soriano	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard	Christian Garcia

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[HacheMan]

Nats shake up fantasy landscape

Soriano gains value with deal; LaRoche, Morse find more at-bats for 2013

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

The Washington Nationals are all-in for 2013.

In a nine-day span, the Nationals have maneuvered the chess pieces of their roster to fill their few glaring weaknesses, and by doing so they have impacted the fantasy values of as many as 12 different players in three different cities.

The chain of events began with the Jan. 8 re-signing of first baseman Adam LaRoche. After a 2011 season ruined by surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, he returned to form last season as a .271-33-100 slugger -- those stats awfully close to his per-162-games career averages of .268-27-93. The No. 12 first baseman on the 2012 Player Rater, LaRoche should again be a quality mixed-league corner infielder or NL-only first baseman, the only potential change in his 2013 numbers being a drop in his 16.5 home run/fly ball percentage. In other words, think a repeat of everything except the homers, which might be closer to that annual average of 27.

Then, on Wednesday, came the surprise report that the Nationals had signed free-agent closer Rafael Soriano to a two-year, $28 million contract, the team adding to an already strong stable of relievers albeit one without ninth-inning clarity. Soriano's deal reportedly includes a vesting option for 2015 that exercises if he tallies at least 120 games finished combined in 2013-14.
Between the vesting option, the $14 million average annual salary that now ranks the highest of any relief pitcher in baseball, and the fact that the Nationals will surrender their first-round pick in June's amateur draft to the New York Yankees, who made Soriano a qualifying offer, it's a safe bet that Soriano will close for the 2013 Nationals. Washington fans who recall Drew Storen's ugly blown save in Game 5 of last October's National League Division Series might agree with such a decision.

Now under contract, Soriano's value, which threatened to drop with each passing week as teams made alternate closer plans, returns to close to what it was in 2012, when he was the No. 10 relief pitcher on our Player Rater. From May 3, the day Mariano Rivera tore his ACL and was lost for the season, through year's end, Soriano's 42 saves were second-most in the game and his 2.26 ERA and 1.06 WHIP both ranked in the top 20 percent of qualified relievers. Remember, too, that Soriano's home ballpark -- Yankee Stadium -- isn't especially friendly to fly-ball pitchers with weaknesses against left-handed hitters; he has allowed a lifetime OPS to that side almost 200 points higher than to righties (.705 to .509).

Freed of Yankee Stadium's homer-friendly confines, Soriano might make a case for top-5 fantasy closer status. The primary reason he's now only 11th in my rankings is that the Nationals have competition for his role. Statistically speaking, consider that he had a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 57 games at Yankee Stadium during his two years in pinstripes, his 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 126 road games the past four seasons combined much better indicators of his true value.

The fantasy values of both Storen and Tyler Clippard, who shared the ninth inning for the Nationals last season, plummet as a result. Neither really did anything to warrant the demotion, but a bullpen that has both ready to be deployed in the seventh and eighth innings on any given night is a stronger one. Storen managed a 2.79 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 6.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 appearances from Sept. 1 forward, playoffs included, meaning he'll still have NL-only appeal, not to mention he is the natural handcuff to Soriano, who has four DL stints for elbow issues the past five seasons combined on his resume.

Clippard, meanwhile, struggled to the tune of a 7.16 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after Sept. 1, playoffs included, but could also be an attractive NL-only ratio helper. Manager Davey Johnson said last spring that he preferred to deploy Clippard in a setup role, which hints that he's the natural No. 3 man in the Nationals' bullpen pecking order. Storen drops to 34th in my relief pitcher rankings following Soriano's signing, while Clippard drops to 38th.


Finally, with LaRoche re-signed to man first base and Denard Span added to complete the Nationals' outfield, Michael Morse was traded on Wednesday as had been heavily rumored for the past week. In a three-team deal Wednesday night, Morse returned to the team with which he made his major league debut in 2005, the Seattle Mariners, with catcher John Jaso shipped to the Oakland Athletics and prospects sent back the Nationals' way.

Morse gives the Mariners yet another designated hitter type -- they've also added similar such candidates as Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez this winter -- and that creates a logjam at DH, first base and in the corner outfield spots. The most likely resolution has Morse getting the bulk of his time in left field, Morales at DH and Ibanez in right field, though much of that depends upon the Mariners' future plans with disappointing first baseman Justin Smoak.

Back in Seattle, Morse's power might be somewhat neutralized by the move to spacious Safeco Field, and his run production (runs and RBIs for our purposes) will suffer as a result of joining a weaker lineup. His critics might cite his .309/.382/.441 rates and 50.7 at-bats per home run averages in 58 games at Safeco during his Mariners career, but keep in mind those were all accrued pre-2010, when his power began capturing our attention, and they came in a tiny sample size of 173 plate appearances. More relevant is the fact that, from 2010-12 combined, Mariners right-handed hitters managed a 5.1 home run/fly ball percentage at Safeco and their opponents 8.0 percent there; Nationals right-handers had a 10.9 percentage at Nationals Park and their opponents 8.6 percent during that same time.

Morse finished his Nationals career with an 18.6 at-bats per home run ratio and 19.9 home run/fly ball percentage, so expect a decline in those rates as a result of the move. With the fences coming in slightly at Safeco, Morse might be more of a 25- than 30-homer candidate granted a full season's at-bats, but that'll result in fewer RBIs, and his low walk total will result in fewer runs in the Mariners' lineup. His fantasy value drops by a couple rounds in the middle of mixed-league drafts; he's now my No. 145 player overall.

Jesus Montero -- a player not involved in any of the past week's transactions -- might be the most intriguing name impacted by the Morse trade. Montero is now the only catcher on the Mariners' 40-man roster, their non-roster invitees being unproven names John Hicks, Jesus Sucre and Mike Zunino, and this could signal the Mariners' interest in making the sophomore their full-time catcher. Here's a curious fact regarding that: Montero was a considerably better hitter when he was catching rather than serving as DH, his splits at both spots listed below.

Catcher: 230 PAs, .310/.343/.498
DH: 320 PAs, .227/.266/.310


If Montero is one of those players who tend to be more focused offensively when he's playing a field position, consider Wednesday's trade a positive. Safeco's outfield dimension changes also benefit him at least as much as anyone on the Mariners' roster, so a compelling case could be made for him as a top-10 fantasy catcher.

Smoak, whose .654 OPS last season was the worst of any qualified first baseman since the 1994 strike, now faces an uphill battle in his quest for at-bats, and he might scarcely warrant AL-only consideration now. Morales is a superior hitter and integral to the Mariners scoring runs, and Ibanez's best spot is DH considering his weak defense. This team might have to go with Montero at catcher, Morales at first, Morse in left and Ibanez at DH nearly every night, otherwise they risk having a brutal defense that could threaten the entire pitching staff's ERA/WHIP.

Jaso is a curious pickup for the Athletics, who until Wednesday appeared ready to entrust sophomore Derek Norris with their regular catcher duties. Though a mediocre defensive catcher, Jaso is a brilliant on-base specialist with an obvious platoon-role split, meaning the Athletics might go straight righty/lefty with the two. Consider that, in the past three seasons combined, Jaso's 1.11:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio is tops among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances. His career OPS against right-handers, however, is 284 points higher than against lefties (.793-.509).

With the trade, Jaso improves to my No. 22 catcher, while Norris drops out of my top 30 at the position. And if you're looking for an uber-deep sleeper in a singular (AL- or NL-only) league, keep close tabs on what the Athletics do with George Kottaras, previously their backup, but designated for assignment following the trade. Kottaras has underrated pop -- he has .200 isolated power and a 21.5 at-bat per homer ratio the past three seasons combined -- and he could be an intriguing pickup for another catcher-needy team. Consider the possibility he lands with, say, the New York Yankees, whose catchers rank among the game's worst?

The Nationals, meanwhile, reacquired pitching prospects A.J. Cole, whom they traded to the Athletics in the December 2011 Gio Gonzalez deal, and Blake Treinen, along with a player to be named later. Cole's prospect stock plummeted following his 7.82-ERA, 1.84-WHIP performance in eight starts in high Class A last summer, though a 2.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP following his demotion to low Class A, plus the fact that he's just 21 years old, gives him some hope in a few years. Treinen has an impressive 4.13 K's-per-walk ratio during his two-year pro career, though a 4.37 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 24 games in high Class A last summer keep him off the top prospect lists. Neither is

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Nats shake up fantasy landscape[/h][h=3]Soriano gains value with deal; LaRoche, Morse find more at-bats for 2013[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

The Washington Nationals are all-in for 2013.

In a nine-day span, the Nationals have maneuvered the chess pieces of their roster to fill their few glaring weaknesses, and by doing so they have impacted the fantasy values of as many as 12 different players in three different cities.

The chain of events began with the Jan. 8 re-signing of first baseman Adam LaRoche. After a 2011 season ruined by surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, he returned to form last season as a .271-33-100 slugger -- those stats awfully close to his per-162-games career averages of .268-27-93. The No. 12 first baseman on the 2012 Player Rater, LaRoche should again be a quality mixed-league corner infielder or NL-only first baseman, the only potential change in his 2013 numbers being a drop in his 16.5 home run/fly ball percentage. In other words, think a repeat of everything except the homers, which might be closer to that annual average of 27.

Then, on Wednesday, came the surprise report that the Nationals had signed free-agent closer Rafael Soriano to a two-year, $28 million contract, the team adding to an already strong stable of relievers albeit one without ninth-inning clarity. Soriano's deal reportedly includes a vesting option for 2015 that exercises if he tallies at least 120 games finished combined in 2013-14.


Between the vesting option, the $14 million average annual salary that now ranks the highest of any relief pitcher in baseball, and the fact that the Nationals will surrender their first-round pick in June's amateur draft to the New York Yankees, who made Soriano a qualifying offer, it's a safe bet that Soriano will close for the 2013 Nationals. Washington fans who recall Drew Storen's ugly blown save in Game 5 of last October's National League Division Series might agree with such a decision.

Now under contract, Soriano's value, which threatened to drop with each passing week as teams made alternate closer plans, returns to close to what it was in 2012, when he was the No. 10 relief pitcher on our Player Rater. From May 3, the day Mariano Rivera tore his ACL and was lost for the season, through year's end, Soriano's 42 saves were second-most in the game and his 2.26 ERA and 1.06 WHIP both ranked in the top 20 percent of qualified relievers. Remember, too, that Soriano's home ballpark -- Yankee Stadium -- isn't especially friendly to fly-ball pitchers with weaknesses against left-handed hitters; he has allowed a lifetime OPS to that side almost 200 points higher than to righties (.705 to .509).

Freed of Yankee Stadium's homer-friendly confines, Soriano might make a case for top-5 fantasy closer status. The primary reason he's now only 11th in my rankings is that the Nationals have competition for his role. Statistically speaking, consider that he had a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 57 games at Yankee Stadium during his two years in pinstripes, his 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 126 road games the past four seasons combined much better indicators of his true value.

The fantasy values of both Storen and Tyler Clippard, who shared the ninth inning for the Nationals last season, plummet as a result. Neither really did anything to warrant the demotion, but a bullpen that has both ready to be deployed in the seventh and eighth innings on any given night is a stronger one. Storen managed a 2.79 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 6.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 appearances from Sept. 1 forward, playoffs included, meaning he'll still have NL-only appeal, not to mention he is the natural handcuff to Soriano, who has four DL stints for elbow issues the past five seasons combined on his resume.

Clippard, meanwhile, struggled to the tune of a 7.16 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after Sept. 1, playoffs included, but could also be an attractive NL-only ratio helper. Manager Davey Johnson said last spring that he preferred to deploy Clippard in a setup role, which hints that he's the natural No. 3 man in the Nationals' bullpen pecking order. Storen drops to 34th in my relief pitcher rankings following Soriano's signing, while Clippard drops to 38th.


Finally, with LaRoche re-signed to man first base and Denard Span added to complete the Nationals' outfield, Michael Morse was traded on Wednesday as had been heavily rumored for the past week. In a three-team deal Wednesday night, Morse returned to the team with which he made his major league debut in 2005, the Seattle Mariners, with catcher John Jaso shipped to the Oakland Athletics and prospects sent back the Nationals' way.

Morse gives the Mariners yet another designated hitter type -- they've also added similar such candidates as Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez this winter -- and that creates a logjam at DH, first base and in the corner outfield spots. The most likely resolution has Morse getting the bulk of his time in left field, Morales at DH and Ibanez in right field, though much of that depends upon the Mariners' future plans with disappointing first baseman Justin Smoak.

Back in Seattle, Morse's power might be somewhat neutralized by the move to spacious Safeco Field, and his run production (runs and RBIs for our purposes) will suffer as a result of joining a weaker lineup. His critics might cite his .309/.382/.441 rates and 50.7 at-bats per home run averages in 58 games at Safeco during his Mariners career, but keep in mind those were all accrued pre-2010, when his power began capturing our attention, and they came in a tiny sample size of 173 plate appearances. More relevant is the fact that, from 2010-12 combined, Mariners right-handed hitters managed a 5.1 home run/fly ball percentage at Safeco and their opponents 8.0 percent there; Nationals right-handers had a 10.9 percentage at Nationals Park and their opponents 8.6 percent during that same time.

Morse finished his Nationals career with an 18.6 at-bats per home run ratio and 19.9 home run/fly ball percentage, so expect a decline in those rates as a result of the move. With the fences coming in slightly at Safeco, Morse might be more of a 25- than 30-homer candidate granted a full season's at-bats, but that'll result in fewer RBIs, and his low walk total will result in fewer runs in the Mariners' lineup. His fantasy value drops by a couple rounds in the middle of mixed-league drafts; he's now my No. 145 player overall.

Jesus Montero -- a player not involved in any of the past week's transactions -- might be the most intriguing name impacted by the Morse trade. Montero is now the only catcher on the Mariners' 40-man roster, their non-roster invitees being unproven names John Hicks, Jesus Sucre and Mike Zunino, and this could signal the Mariners' interest in making the sophomore their full-time catcher. Here's a curious fact regarding that: Montero was a considerably better hitter when he was catching rather than serving as DH, his splits at both spots listed below.

Catcher: 230 PAs, .310/.343/.498
DH: 320 PAs, .227/.266/.310


If Montero is one of those players who tend to be more focused offensively when he's playing a field position, consider Wednesday's trade a positive. Safeco's outfield dimension changes also benefit him at least as much as anyone on the Mariners' roster, so a compelling case could be made for him as a top-10 fantasy catcher.

Smoak, whose .654 OPS last season was the worst of any qualified first baseman since the 1994 strike, now faces an uphill battle in his quest for at-bats, and he might scarcely warrant AL-only consideration now. Morales is a superior hitter and integral to the Mariners scoring runs, and Ibanez's best spot is DH considering his weak defense. This team might have to go with Montero at catcher, Morales at first, Morse in left and Ibanez at DH nearly every night, otherwise they risk having a brutal defense that could threaten the entire pitching staff's ERA/WHIP.

Jaso is a curious pickup for the Athletics, who until Wednesday appeared ready to entrust sophomore Derek Norris with their regular catcher duties. Though a mediocre defensive catcher, Jaso is a brilliant on-base specialist with an obvious platoon-role split, meaning the Athletics might go straight righty/lefty with the two. Consider that, in the past three seasons combined, Jaso's 1.11:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio is tops among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances. His career OPS against right-handers, however, is 284 points higher than against lefties (.793-.509).

With the trade, Jaso improves to my No. 22 catcher, while Norris drops out of my top 30 at the position. And if you're looking for an uber-deep sleeper in a singular (AL- or NL-only) league, keep close tabs on what the Athletics do with George Kottaras, previously their backup, but designated for assignment following the trade. Kottaras has underrated pop -- he has .200 isolated power and a 21.5 at-bat per homer ratio the past three seasons combined -- and he could be an intriguing pickup for another catcher-needy team. Consider the possibility he lands with, say, the New York Yankees, whose catchers rank among the game's worst?

The Nationals, meanwhile, reacquired pitching prospects A.J. Cole, whom they traded to the Athletics in the December 2011 Gio Gonzalez deal, and Blake Treinen, along with a player to be named later. Cole's prospect stock plummeted following his 7.82-ERA, 1.84-WHIP performance in eight starts in high Class A last summer, though a 2.07 ERA and 1.01 WHIP following his demotion to low Class A, plus the fact that he's just 21 years old, gives him some hope in a few years. Treinen has an impressive 4.13 K's-per-walk ratio during his two-year pro career, though a 4.37 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 24 games in high Class A last summer keep him off the top prospect lists. Neither is draft-worthy in 2013.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]How Stanton can get even better[/h][h=3]Scouts and stats show where the Marlins slugger can really improve[/h]By Teddy Mitrosilis | ESPN Insider

Like many sluggers, we view Giancarlo Stanton through a prism of absolutes. He hits home runs -- his 71 in the last two seasons rank fourth in baseball. He strikes out -- his 28 percent strikeout rate in the same period is fifth-highest among qualified hitters. His contact is loud and violent, and these things all reaffirm the power-hitter archetype. Big homers, big misses; little room to be something more.

And that is a significant part of Stanton. The homers do define him. He takes a regimented batting practice, except in Denver. At Coors Field, he tries to launch balls over the Rockies. Coors is his "mulligan," says Eduardo Perez, who was Miami's hitting coach last season and is now in Houston. Trade speculation has stalked Stanton this winter, and rumor consumers dream of his power playing in Texas. Arlington and Stanton, can you imagine?

Yes, it's easy to, because homers will forever be the currency of Stanton's career. They've made him a star. They've made him an extraordinarily valuable trade asset. But they also make him simplistic. Stanton's potential is more than an all-or-nothing power guy. "He shouldn't even look at himself as a home run hitter, even though that's what everybody says he is," Perez says.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]More than average[/h]Stanton's batting average has continually crept up. And while some might say his BABIP surge is a fluke, note that the steady rise in isolated power suggests he is hitting the ball harder and harder.

YEAR	AVG	BABIP	ISO
2010	.259	.330	.248
2011	.262	.314	.275
2012	.290	.344	.318

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<!-- end inline 1 -->At 23, the scary thing about Stanton isn't his supernatural power. It's what he's still giving up.
<offer>
What's left of Stanton's development is layered with nuance, and to strip away the layers, we must first address the strikeouts. For Miami, the whiffs are little more than a sales tax on the production, and Stanton isn't judicious, chasing 48 percent of two-strike pitches out of the zone last season. It's a nearly blinding figure that drives his aforementioned K rate, but it's not an outlier among his peers. At 32 percent, Joey Votto scoffs, though Stanton's two-strike chase rate was in line with Prince Fielder and better than Ryan Braun (49 percent) and Albert Pujols (50 percent), though they all whiff far less frequently.

Both Perez and rival evaluators say Stanton will likely reduce his strikeouts with time, but Perez said it shouldn't be a focus.

"If you focus on cutting down on strikeouts, then you're messing with his aggressiveness," Perez says. "You can't tell a guy who swings hard to cut back. The key is that Giancarlo is getting better at passing."

Stanton's next improvement here is the same one that will unlock his next level of potential and production.

Take Adam Dunn, the prototypical homer-strikeout guy. In 2012, Dunn's 34.2 percent strikeout rate led baseball and was nearly 6 percent higher than Stanton's. Dunn's two-strike chase rate: 30 percent, or 18 percentage points lower than Stanton's. Huh?

"Dunn gets criticized for striking out so much, but he only swings at pitches he knows he can hit out of the park," said one evaluator who followed Stanton last season. "You can throw [Dunn] 15 pitches in the same spot, and he'll look at all of them even if he strikes out looking five times. You can argue if that's right or not, but there's a moment when guys finally find their own hitting zones.

"Stanton isn't a one-trick pony. Strike-zone awareness is maturity, and he'll get even better when he gets that. He'll come to understand his swing."

One player Stanton can look to for inspiration is 2012 American League MVP Miguel Cabrera, who boasted a 24.1 percent K rate as a rookie, but was at 14.1 percent while winning the Triple Crown. Strikeout totals decline as a byproduct of maturity, and while they mark the coming of age, like periodic pencil marks on a doorjamb, they don't explain it. The pitching charts do that, and for Stanton, we see traces of both growth and lingering immaturity.

For right-handers, the plan against the right-handed Stanton has mostly consisted of two parts: fastballs in and sliders away. There hasn't been much need for a third weapon. On the first pitch, you can run a fastball in, where Stanton shows a little discomfort, or you can throw a slider away, where he swung at 36 percent of them last season. His reaction to that pitch dictates the subsequent one.

Lefties will incorporate a changeup instead of a slider, but the plan is similar: heaters inside, fade changes away, back in with an elevated fastball or breaking ball at Stanton's back foot. In 1-0 and 2-1 counts last season, the inside/outside split on fastballs was more even, but with Stanton's coverage and ability, he handles the outer half well.

"Yeah, that's textbook against [Stanton]," Perez says. "The problem is if you miss, he'll hit it a country mile."</offer>


Yes, of course. That's the deadly roulette you play with Stanton. But because he's raw, he doesn't force those misses as often as he should. Pitchers can live wild and free on the perimeter of danger, never trespassing too far into the zone, because Stanton comes to them.

"Right now, he expands his zone a little too often," the evaluator says. "He won't chase every slider, but he will chase, and he'll get too long and tie himself up inside, making it tough to get his barrel out."

Stanton may always hack with two strikes, as he tries to protect, but there's significant growth awaiting him in his work before two strikes.

Perez notes Stanton's improvement on laying off 3-1 and 3-2 sliders last season -- a machine drill where Stanton tracks sliders down and away repeatedly, to ingrain a mental image of that pitch, has helped -- and the charts show Stanton improved his chase rate on those pitches by about 5 percent last season. In clear hitters' counts, where Stanton is hunting fastballs, he's aggressive but not detrimentally so.

He hurts himself in "swing" counts -- such as 0-1, 1-0 and 1-1 -- where the next pitch could significantly swing the balance of power in the at bat. Like any young hitter, Stanton occasionally gets bloodthirsty to destroy a baseball, and pitchers can prey on his eagerness by spinning a little slider. With his talent and power comes an irresistible urge to use it. Stanton swung at 58 percent of those last season (chasing 43 percent out of the zone), producing a .652 OPS.

By doing this, Stanton gives away leverage in an at-bat. Pitchers are spared some of the discomfort of being backed into a corner, because they know there's at least the hope Stanton gets himself out. They know in a 2-0 count that Stanton may expand against fastballs. They know in similar scenarios he may get anxious against a breaking ball.

"Gap-to-gap line drives should be his focus," Perez says. "He gets in trouble when he tries to hit homers. He should try to hit everything at an infielder's knees."

This is the final piece for Stanton, his doctorate degree in hitting that will make him more than just big homers and big misses.

"He's different because he doesn't have to try to hit balls hard," the evaluator says. "He's pure strength. When he understands that, I wouldn't be surprised if he hits .300 with power."

There'll still be big misses, but with them will be more walks, more damage, more country miles traveled.

 

[HacheMan]

Braves get Justin Upton in big deal

PHOENIX -- Justin Upton is having a family reunion in Atlanta.
Arizona traded its star right fielder to the Braves on Thursday in a seven-player deal that sent former All-Star infielder Martin Prado to the Diamondbacks.
For the first time since he was a high school freshman, Upton will have older brother B.J. Upton as a teammate.
The brothers combine with Jason Heyward, who won a Gold Glove in 2012, in an outfield potentially packed with power and speed.


"If we push ourselves to the next level, I feel with the extra push from each other there's no question we can be the best outfield in baseball," Justin Upton said in a telephone interview. "I'm not going to give us that label until we prove it."
The Braves, who also get third baseman Chris Johnson, are giving up one of their top pitching prospects, Randall Delgado, and three minor leaguers in the deal.
They are right-hander Zeke Spruill, shortstop Nick Ahmed and first baseman Brandon Drury.
Prado, projected to play third base for the Diamondbacks, can become a free agent after this season, but Arizona general manager Kevin Towers said he already was working with Prado's agent on a long-term deal.
B.J. Upton, 28, signed a five-year, $75.25 million contract with Atlanta in November.
Justin Upton, who has five full seasons in the majors but is just 25, said he already got tips from his brother from afar. Now there will be more chances for the two to help each other.
"I think from that standpoint it will be good, but I think more than anything being able to show up at the ballpark genuinely excited every day and have that energy," he said. "The more energy you can bring from the start every day, it makes you a better player."
Braves general manager Frank Wren said he expects the brothers will push each other.
"I do think it will drive them," Wren said. "We've been looking for that young dynamic, right-handed, power-hitting outfielder that can hit in the middle of the lineup and makes that other team think a little bit."
The younger Upton, who has three years and $38.5 million left on his contract, had been the subject of trade speculation throughout the offseason and vetoed a deal to the Seattle Mariners.
Upton had his ups and downs in Arizona, and Towers believes the change of scenery will benefit the young player, who was just 19 when he came to the majors.
"The expectations were through the roof on him," Towers said. "When the team struggled, it seemed like it was always because of Justin. That's hard. We're human beings. It's hard to take when you're a young individual trying to establish yourself."
Now, Towers said, Upton has "an opportunity to go to a different place to where he's going to fit in with some star players over there, where he's just kind of a piece of the puzzle versus kind of the centerpiece and the big piece of the puzzle.
"I think some pressure will be off of him."
Arizona manager Kurt Gibson, his left arm in a sling after shoulder surgery, said he sent Upton a long text wishing him the best.
"I said, 'You must be ecstatic to be able to play with your brother.' I could certainly understand that. It's got to be a great thrill for him."
Gibson said Upton reminded him of himself as a player.

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Trade Details[/h]The Braves and Diamondbacks have completed a seven-player trade. Here's where everyone is headed.

Atlanta Braves Get
Justin Upton OF
Chris Johnson 3B
Arizona Diamondbacks Get
Randall Delgado P
Martin Prado INF
Nick Ahmed SS
Brandon Drury 3B
Zeke Spruill P

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<!-- end inline 2 -->"I had some things that happened with my manager Sparky Anderson over the years where maybe we butted heads a little bit and I didn't agree with him," Gibson said, "but when it was all said and done it all made sense and it was for me to become a better person and a better ballplayer. I would say similar things have happened with me and Justin throughout our association. I know he respects me and I respect him."
Prado, who joins fellow Venezuelan Miguel Montero in Arizona, made the All-Star team in 2010 as a second baseman and played mostly in left field last season. Prado was projected to move to third base for the Braves this season to replace the retired Chipper Jones.
Arizona had accumulated a glut of outfielders, signing Cody Ross as a free agent last month. Upton, an All-Star pick in 2009 and '11, was the most marketable.
Upton, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, has played five full major league seasons. Last season, he hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs and a career-high 107 runs.
In 2011, while helping Arizona win the NL West, Upton hit .289 with career-best totals of 31 home runs and 88 RBIs and finished fourth in NL MVP voting. Overall, he's a career .278 hitter with 108 home runs, 739 hits, 147 doubles and 80 stolen bases.
Upton said he hopes to become a more consistent player in Atlanta.
"I've had a couple good years where I put up good numbers and my goal all along has been to put those years up consistently," he said. "I think now I'm in a position with Atlanta ... we can really feed off each other throughout that lineup to try to get everybody to that consistent production rate."
Delgado, a 23-year-old right-hander, had been expected to challenge for a spot in the Braves rotation. His acquisition bolsters the young pitching depth in Arizona depleted by the trade of Trevor Bauer. Delgado was 4-9 with a 4.37 ERA in 18 appearances, 17 as a starter, for the Braves. Rated Atlanta's No. 3 prospect by Baseball America the past two years, he was 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA with Triple-A Gwinnett last season.
The trade leaves Arizona with three veteran outfielders -- Ross, Jason Kubel and Gerardo Parra -- along with two youngsters the team feels are ready for the majors -- Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock. Towers projects Eaton as a center fielder and a prototypical leadoff hitter.
Towers said the addition of Ross and a top contact hitter in Prado changes the character of the club.
"I would say we're going to be a little different club," he said. "I think we can still hit home runs, but I think the last couple of years we've relied too much on the long ball. If you look at our record, those days that we didn't homer, we usually didn't win."

 

[HacheMan]

Arizona didn't get enough for Upton

Arizona didn't get enough for Upton

Keith Law

The Atlanta Braves didn't specifically need Justin Upton to be playoff contenders again in 2013, but having him certainly helps. Because they got him for about 50 cents on the dollar, they should be over the moon about the deal they wrapped up Thursday, which restores what they lost with Michael Bourn's departure and sets them up well for the two years that follow as well.

Even though he played hurt through much of the season, Upton was still valuable in 2012, just nowhere close to his full potential when healthy and his timing at the plate is right, as it was in 2011 when he was worth around six wins above replacement. Upton has some of the best bat speed and strongest wrists in the game, generating hard contact and easy power, similar to Andrew McCutchen when he's squaring up the ball consistently.

In 2012, Upton's timing was off for much of the year, and he was popping up a lot of pitches on the inner half that the year before he would have driven to the left-center gap or out of the park. Much of this probably was tied to a thumb injury he suffered in the third game of the season but never addressed with time off. Hand injuries of any sort tend to sap power by reducing a hitter's ability to make hard contact, and that was a major issue for Upton all year.

Defensively, he is an outstanding right fielder who will be just as good in left, assuming Atlanta leaves Jason Heyward -- himself a plus-plus glove in right -- in his current spot.

Way too much has been made of Upton's home/road splits; talented players in extreme parks often produce extreme splits where neither half measures their true talent, with Matt Holliday a solid recent example. Upton's ability to hit and hit for power has never been tied to the ballpark but rather to his bat speed, his wrist acceleration and his eye at the plate.

If he is healthy in 2013 and gets some support from his new coaching staff, he should become a top-10 player in the league again, and at an average of just under $13 million a year for the next three seasons, he'll be a relative bargain for his new employers.

Atlanta also gets Chris Johnson as a throw-in who might split time at third base with Juan Francisco in what probably will be the team's weakest position unless they have one more move up their sleeves. But the overall improvement is worth creating this small and perhaps temporary void in their lineup. They weren't going to be able to directly replace the retired Chipper Jones, especially not in a terrible offseason market for third-base help, but the net result is about as positive as Atlanta fans could have hoped for.

[h=3]Did Arizona get enough?[/h]
The Diamondbacks' new strategy seems to be to trade any player that manager Kirk Gibson doesn't like, regardless of the reason. For the second time this offseason, they've made such a deal and taken less than full value in return for a player the whole industry knew the team wanted to move. At some point, they're going to have to stop blaming the players.

Arizona's return boils down to this: one year of Martin Prado, six years of a fifth starter in Randall Delgado, two fringy prospects and one non-prospect. If that sounds like a good deal to you, I have some beachfront property in Phoenix to sell you.

Prado is a versatile player who will probably be Arizona's full-time third baseman, solving a need for the club in 2013 but at an exorbitant cost since he is a free agent after the 2013 season. He is an above-average defender at third who generates most of his offensive value with high contact rates; when he hits .300, which he has done four times in the past five seasons, he is potentially a three- to four-win player at third base. (His WAR figures overstate his value somewhat with inflated defensive figures in left field.) He doesn't walk much or have power, nor is that likely to change given his age -- he might creep up closer to 20 homers playing 90 games a year in Chase Field and Coors -- so this is a bet that he'll keep making contact and fill the void at third. That's enough to offset the loss of Upton's bat and glove for one season.


Delgado is a fastball/changeup guy in search of an average breaking ball, without success so far, surviving by changing speeds and keeping the two-seamer down enough to generate ground balls. If he were to bump up his control by a grade or two, he has a chance to be league-average in some years, but the lack of an average curveball or slider will make it hard for him to miss enough bats. He reminds me in some ways of Pat Corbin, another changeup guy who is serviceable in the back of the rotation but who looked dynamite out of the pen in brief stints for Arizona in 2012. (You can be very good in a relief role with only two pitches.)

Nick Ahmed was the ninth-best prospect in Atlanta's system, a good defensive shortstop with a plus-plus arm but little offensive upside. He loads his hands very deep, leading to a long swing, and doesn't have the plate discipline to allow him to compensate.

Zeke Spruill was seventh on my Atlanta rankings, with a low-90s fastball that has some tailing life, keeping the ball down but not enough to make him a true ground-ball guy. He has an average slider in the 82-84 mph range and a hard changeup (almost split-like) in the 85-87 range that was very effective against left-handed hitters this year, giving him no platoon split at all in Double-A. He is very slight of build and tends to sling the ball a little from a low three-quarters slot, so I don't know how durable he is. Add in the fact that he doesn't miss a lot of bats with three average pitches and it doesn't bode well for him to be more than a back-end starter.

It's not a coincidence that both players, like Didi Gregorius (acquired in the Trevor Bauer trade), played in the Arizona Fall League last year, where Arizona GM Kevin Towers could see them personally.

The last player in the deal, Brandon Drury, is a non-prospect, with no performance behind him and no clear position. I wouldn't trade Upton's 2014 and 2015 seasons, at good prices, for these four young guys. That is, in effect, what Arizona did.

 

[HacheMan]

My ranks for 2013: Nos. 11-20

Eric Karabell

Some believe I've gone a bit overboard in selecting Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout as my top player for the 2013 season. Granted, Trout was awesome in 2012, and I concur that some regression is pending, but he delivered numbers we've never seen from a 20-year-old. Well, Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper turned 20 in October. His rookie campaign may have paled in comparison to what Trout accomplished, but it was still mighty impressive. Harper's future is similarly bright for statistical goodness, and as a result he crashed my top-20 rankings this season.
<offer>In order to deserve this lofty a ranking, Harper will need to hit for batting average and significant power, which I think are givens, but he'll also have to steal enough bases to matter. There again, I'm not too concerned. Watch Harper play on a consistent basis, as I did this past season, and he's clearly fast and aggressive enough to make a significant impact in every offensive fantasy category. Plus, the kid has several chips on his broad shoulders. He wants to be great, and I see several 30/30 seasons in his future. As it was, he went 22/18 at age 19!


I don't mind exalting a young player with this ability to the second round because I think Harper is really, really safe. He has tremendous raw power. Young lefty hitters often struggle to look competent against left-handed hurlers, but Harper is going to work at his craft and improve, and I think he's probably a bit jealous that Trout got so much attention. I could see 30 home runs, 100 RBI and 25 steals from Harper as soon as this season, with a .300 batting average, but more likely in the .280 range. That's worth a top-20 pick for sure, and it's probably worth a top-10 pick. And in keeper/dynasty formats, he's about the best choice out there. Check our ongoing dynasty mock: Harper went third. I would have chosen him second.

For those wondering about my top 10, well, just click right here and see 'em! For now, here's my second round:

[h=3]11. Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves[/h]
Wow. Just wow. I think the Diamondbacks are nuts to move a 25-year-old with MVP capabilities. A year ago, I had Upton in my top 10, and that didn't quite work out. A left thumb injury haunted him all season. Still, he's 25! He hit 31 home runs in 2011, he draws walks and he runs, averaging 19 stolen bases over the past four years. He also has hit .286 during that span. Um, can I redo my top 10? Upton would be back in it. As bad as his 2012 campaign was, I think we can live with a .280 batting average, 17 home runs, 18 steals and 107 runs scored. In Atlanta, with a team that actually wants him, playing with his brother, I see him having his best season yet.

[h=3]12. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers[/h]
The case can certainly be made for Fielder over Pujols (my No. 7 choice), but let's not quibble. Both are terrific. Fielder plays every game and hits for power, though it would be nice if he'd score more than 83 runs -- a returning Victor Martinez to the Detroit lineup should help that -- and perhaps Miguel Cabrera could leave a few more proverbial ducks on the pond so that Fielder could knock in more runs. He's safe, though, and the first base pool, while still fantasy's top offensive position, gets a bit worse each season, too, which is why I'm more inclined than ever to take a first baseman this early.

[h=3]13. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds[/h]
Again, let's not rip the players that just missed the top 10. These are great players. It might cost a first-rounder in most leagues to get Votto, but I think people overrate him some. Yes, he hits for a high batting average. The power, though, is another story. He has hit 30 home runs just once. He's running less. And durability is an issue. Let's presume the RBI total rises with a legitimate leadoff hitter in place, but add up the question marks and he fits best in the second round for me.

[h=3]14. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins[/h]
I project only two players to reach 40 home runs this season. One is Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista; the other is Stanton. Sure, Stanton is probably still seething that the Marlins dealt all their top talent except him, but he'll be fine. Lineup protection is absolutely a myth. If Stanton's walk rate rises, intentionally or not, I'm all for it. I'll still take the under on 150 games, but the over on 40 home runs and 100 RBIs.

[h=3]15. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
I do worry about how many games we'll get from Longoria, but if I can rank Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in my top 10, hey, I might as well be consistent. Longoria played in only 74 games last year, as a serious hamstring injury knocked him out, but I wouldn't call it a chronic problem just yet. Longoria smacked 17 home runs and knocked in 55 in less than half a season. In five seasons, his OPS has ended up between .850 and .896 each time. Simply put, he's an AL MVP candidate every year.

[h=3]16. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers[/h]
Verlander's 2012 campaign was eerily similar to the year prior, when he took home AL MVP and Cy Young Award honors. He just won seven fewer games. This is another reason why wins are impossible to predict. Still, lest you think Verlander is slipping, he still finished in the top 10 overall on the ESPN Player Rater in 2012, and there's little reason to expect otherwise in 2013. That said, the sheer lack of offensive depth, as compared to starting pitching, keeps Verlander and the next guy out of my top 10.

[h=3]17. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
Yep, a second pitcher makes my top 20. Hard to believe. But hey, at least it's not R.A. Dickey or Fernando Rodney, the top two pitchers on last season's Player Rater (Verlander and Kershaw were next). As with Verlander, the top NL option is a durable strikeout monster who consistently provides a solid ERA and WHIP. Likewise, his win total dropped by seven, but it could easily go back up. You can count on Kershaw for safe, reliable innings.

[h=3]18. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets[/h]
A year ago, I ranked Wright in my top 20 -- I was widely mocked for that, by the way -- and enjoyed his bounce-back season on several of my fantasy teams. Wright might fall short of 30 home runs, 100 RBIs and 20 stolen bases, but the overall package -- and, I think, his reliability -- makes him worthy of this spot. He finished 14th among hitters on the 2012 Player Rater, and he has the track record and runs enough to convince me he's still worth it.

[h=3]19. Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Dodgers[/h]
Hanley reminds me a bit of Justin Upton in how he's foolishly viewed. Ramirez is not as young or brimming with power upside, but as bad as his 2012 season was, 24 home runs, 92 RBIs and 21 stolen bases from a shortstop is hardly complaint-worthy. What Jacoby Ellsbury did -- or didn't do -- is worth complaining about. Ramirez can play two infield positions, each scarce with depth, and I presume more 20/20 campaigns are pending. Perhaps the days of hitting .300 are past him, but when in doubt, grab versatility, both in terms of eligibility and statistical prowess.

[h=3]20. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals[/h]
As I explain above, I don't see this being much of a stretch at all. Besides, you'd probably have to take him this early if you want him. Draft the kid, and enjoy the fantasy goodness.

Who missed: San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey misses for a few reasons. One, he's a catcher. They get hurt and are consistently poor early-round investments. See Joe Mauer for proof of that. Two, while I have the utmost respect for Posey's amazing season, it's tough for a catcher, even Mauer, to contend for batting titles each season. As great as Posey was in 2012, he still finished 27th on our Player Rater. In ESPN standard formats, you need only one catcher, and there's enough depth to wait on the position. … I'm seeing Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre, former Ranger and new Angels outfielder Josh Hamilton and Toronto Blue Jays first baseman (he's no longer eligible at third base, which would have mattered) Edwin Encarnacion as popular top-20 selections. I have little issue with these guys. Beltre remains a Ranger, so the batting average and power output seem safe. Hamilton concerns me more in his new home ballpark, but really, it's more about the durability there. And I like Encarnacion. That power is legit. This trio of mashers and Posey made my top 30, along with Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, Braves outfielder Jason Heyward, Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes and starting pitchers Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg and John Lannan. (OK, just joking. Remove Lannan and insert David Price.)

Get ready for your drafts; our draft kit will be published in mid-February!
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Top bounce-back options for 2013

Eric Karabell

One of the annual components of my fantasy baseball draft preparation for any league is to take a look not just at current results from average live drafts but at what occurred in drafts a year ago. Fantasy owners are a reactive bunch, regardless of sport, and they tend to forget about players coming off injuries or just poor play, especially if age is a factor. I find it is wise to dig a bit deeper into why certain players underperformed statistically in the most recent season and analyze the chances of them bouncing back to previous levels.
<offer>Of course, not all the players pegged for a return to glory will achieve great things, but if you take chances on two or three long-shot options, even in a standard, 10-team draft, and one pans out, like Lance Berkman did in 2011, it's worth it. I pinned my proverbial flag to Berkman that year and was rewarded with stellar numbers. In 2012, Berkman was on everyone's bust list, and I expected regression as well, and wouldn't you know he managed to play in a mere 32 games. So what should we expect from the Big Puma this year?

In case you're deep into fantasy hockey season or enamored with the Manti Te'o coverage, you might have missed Berkman signing a one-year deal to be the designated hitter and bat third for Ron Washington's mighty Texas Rangers, essentially replacing departed Josh Hamilton in a still-feared lineup. Um, sign me up! Nobody knows if Berkman will stride/limp to the plate more than 500 times, as in 2011, or fewer than 100 times, as in 2012, but even in a standard league, I'll spend a late-round pick to find out, because this guy still has serious power and plate discipline.

Consider that Rangers Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus will regularly be on base for him, sluggers Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz will follow him, he'll hit in a hitter-friendly ballpark half the time, and he'll play the wretched Houston Astros 18 times this season. Plus, Berkman won't even need to bring a fielding glove with him (though he is first base-eligible in fantasy), and the Rangers can sit him against tough left-handed pitching. And the best part for fantasy: Berkman is totally off the radar.

To me, someone like Justin Upton doesn't truly fit the criteria, for these purposes, of a bounce-back player. Sure, the younger Upton disappointed based on expectations in 2012, but what is he really bouncing back from, a 17-homer, 18-steal, top-20 outfielder season? Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki aim to bounce back from injury, along with myriad others, but again, these fellows put up some reasonable numbers while they were active in 2012 and fared well in my 2013 rankings. So let's focus on fellows that, like Berkman, didn't sniff the top 250 on ESPN's Player Rater last season and can be had at a significant discount from this time last year.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: A top-10 pick a year ago, Ellsbury's lack of durability remains a considerable concern, and some people will avoid him all together. A likely top-50 pick in most leagues for 2013, I'm hoping for 140 games, 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases, which seem reasonable considering it's a contract year and the ability is there. With stolen base fellows like Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and, to some degree, Carl Crawford who are not recovering from leg woes, remember that nobody managed to swipe as many as 50 stolen bases in 2012, so they have serious value if 100 percent healthy.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Speaking of ability, Hosmer went from draft-day sleeper to dropped in most leagues. A rotator cuff tear depressed his power and led to one lazy ground ball after another, but the skills are clearly present for 25 home runs, a strong batting average and enough steals to matter. He is a bargain if more than 15 first basemen go earlier, which is likely.

Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: He claims he is healthy, and let's remember he was the first pitcher off the draft board in 2012. The thing is now you can likely get him outside the top 10 starting pitchers. It's all about value. Don't presume Cy Young Award-like numbers or a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts, but don't be scared off by him being 35 either.

Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: The speedster stole 32 bases in roughly half a season, but now he is viewed as a failed prospect with little future as a hitter. That's how fast a dynasty league gem falls out of favor. Perhaps he starts 2013 in the minors, and he must hit better and take a walk occasionally, but take a chance on him late -- because when he does learn to hit and wins a starting job, multiple stolen base crowns could follow.

Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: There seems to be little reason to even consider a player that posted a 5.77 ERA and 1.67 WHIP a year ago, but offseason procedures on his throwing elbow and both knees likely played a major role in his struggles. I'm not saying Romero, the 22nd starting pitcher in ADP a year ago, bounces all the way back to the 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 178 strikeouts of 2011, but those in deeper formats should consider the possibility of 200 healthy innings. Remember, a year ago nobody wanted A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo or Ryan Dempster, but a solid track record should not be ignored.

Digging deeper: Logan Morrison, 1B/OF, Miami Marlins; Chris Young, OF, Oakland Athletics; Stephen Drew, SS, Red Sox; Peter Bourjos, OF, Los Angeles Angels; John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox; Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis Cardinals.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Bullpen Report: Closers on new teams

Eric Karabell

The best relief pitchers in the Boston Red Sox bullpen in 2012 were, believe it or not, right-handers Scott Atchison and Junichi Tazawa. Actually, that dynamic duo led all Red Sox pitchers in wins above replacement, which is hard to believe -- and a bit sad -- considering the staff included Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and even Alfredo Aceves, who saved 25 games. Atchison and Tazawa did perform well in their combined 95 1/3 innings, but still, their team-leading WAR was a strong indicator as to why the team finished in last place in the AL East.

The current Red Sox bullpen, if not the rotation, certainly seems much improved on paper, with enough choices that fantasy owners might be wondering about handcuff options and safe, valuable setup innings. After all, former Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Joel Hanrahan boasts consecutive All-Star game selections and 76 saves the past two seasons. Brittle Andrew Bailey is a former Rookie of the Year, with a career ERA of 2.47. Former Baltimore Orioles/Texas Rangers right-hander Koji Uehara boasts a sub-3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four seasons in the USA, and then there's former setup man/failed starter Daniel Bard, still a formidable presence. Plus, Aceves and Tazawa are back, and lefties Craig Breslow and Andrew Miller were solid in 2012. What could go wrong in 2013? There must be some drama!

Well, let's start with Hanrahan. I'm avoiding the top 10 closers in most leagues, opting to wait on saves since so many options, even the so-called safe ones, will be imploding, and Hanrahan is one of those names to be wary of. He's not the only closer switching teams and/or leagues, but in his case, it will be interesting to see him adjust from closing in the relative obscurity of Pittsburgh and the NL Central to the AL East and the Fenway Faithful who grew to dislike even the reliable Jonathan Papelbon. I won't really compare Hanrahan to Mark Melancon, but let's just say the stakes changed there, and a serviceable arm imploded. Hanrahan certainly brings his own blowup potential.

Hanrahan really struggled with his control the second half of 2012, and please don't correlate this to his teammates falling apart. Back in the day, he was wild, and we saw that fellow the final month-plus, when he totaled more walks than strikeouts from Sept. 1 on. Sure, his strikeout rate rose and the ERA and WHIP look splendid, but this is a fellow with a history of missing the strike zone, and he allowed eight home runs. On a team with myriad options, let's just say the leash will be short. Hanrahan misses my top 10 closers for precisely this reason, but I suspect plenty of fantasy owners/Red Sox fans will be expecting 50-plus saves and dominant numbers. I'd say more like 30 saves with a 3.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, still worth drafting, but riskier than most people realize. It wouldn't be a shock if Jason Grilli, the presumed closer left behind in Pittsburgh, delivers far more fantasy value.


Bailey's issue has always been health, not performance. I'm willing to write off his ugly 2012, as he missed most of the season with a thumb injury, then struggled when he was activated. Bailey has pitched a total of 106 big league innings over the past three seasons, which isn't much. He's hard to hit and a good strikeout option, but few closers seem as likely to hit the DL. Still, Bailey is next in line, if the Red Sox keep him around, and with his statistical track record he's a reasonable handcuff option, worth a late pick even in 10-team standard leagues.

For those looking for good innings, and the chance for saves in AL-only formats or deep mixed leagues, I'd recommend Uehara, Bard and yes, even Aceves. Uehara's numbers are fantastic. Durability and the occasional home run are issues, but the last three seasons, his WHIP has been .639, .723 and .955. In that span, covering 145 innings, he has fanned 183 hitters. Bard's career numbers as a reliever are strong, with more strikeouts than innings. Aceves imploded down the stretch last season, but from May through July he thrived, and in 2009 and 2011 he won 10 games each season as a long reliever (he made five starts those seasons), and he likely will be used that way in 2013.

Meanwhile, Hanrahan isn't the only closer switching teams and joining a potentially crowded crew.

Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals: Give the Nationals credit for this surprise signing. With accomplished right-handers Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard already in place, the Nationals inked Soriano to a two-year deal. As with Boston's Bailey, plenty of fantasy owners in keeper leagues were dealt a jolt. How could Storen or Clippard get saves now? Soriano has experience in the NL East, walks are rarely a problem, and he joins a potential 100-win outfit, so he makes my top 10 closers with ease. Storen is the handcuff, but don't expect saves.

Ryan Madson, Los Angeles Angels: He missed 2012 after Tommy John surgery, and while there's no proof he'll leapfrog Ernesto Frieri for ninth-inning duties, manager Mike Scioscia has options. Frieri didn't allow a run over a two-month period after the trade from San Diego, but he has a propensity for walking batters, and when hitters make contact, it tends to go a long way, as he permitted nine home runs, seven in the second half. I think Madson leads the team in saves, though Frieri and Scott Downs have experience as well.

Joakim Soria, Rangers: Joe Nathan is coming off a tremendous season, and there's little reason for concern in 2013, but Soria, coming off his second Tommy John surgery, boasts a 2.40 career ERA with 160 saves. He's more interesting for keeper/dynasty formats, as he could miss half of 2013 recovering and Nathan could be elsewhere by 2014, so pay attention to this situation. Neftali Feliz could also factor in if he struggles as a starter upon his return from Tommy John surgery.

 

[HacheMan]

Eric's top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013

Eric Karabell

It's hardly practical to expect first-year players to perform as well as Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper did in 2012. For starters, no rookie had ever done quite what Trout did, while Harper produced his award-winning campaign at the age of 19. That just doesn't happen. Fantasy owners especially need to realize how remarkable the 2012 season was and to keep expectations in check. Remember, other Rookie of the Year winners the past few seasons include Chris Coghlan, Geovany Soto and Andrew Bailey.

Of course, looking at this season's class of rookie-eligible players, there certainly are interesting options for fantasy owners to dream about, though what Trout and Harper accomplished really has no bearing on how future youngsters will perform. That said, here are my top 10 rookies for the 2013 season in terms of fantasy baseball relevance, and yes, it's unbalanced toward the hitters because they are, without a doubt, safer. For more information on the top prospects, colleague Keith Law will reveal his Top 100 the first week of February.
<offer>1. Jurickson Profar, 2B, Texas Rangers: A shortstop by trade, Profar is eligible at second base initially in fantasy because he played more big league games there in 2012 (five at 2B, three at SS). No matter, the bigger concern is the same thing Trout dealt with a year ago: Can Profar force his way onto the Rangers' roster before midseason? He turns 20 in February, after all. He brings the most fantasy upside of the MLB-ready offensive prospects, with intriguing power for a middle infielder, plus speed and terrific plate discipline, and there's no concern about his glove. This isn't Trout, but even in redraft leagues he's worth a late-round selection just in case he emerges in April.


2. Bruce Rondon, RP, Detroit Tigers: Surprise! Look, this is fantasy baseball, and a year ago when Chicago White Sox reliever Addison Reed was exalted in this space, it was because I was sure he'd become a closer. He did, and 29 saves later (though with a rather disconcerting ERA), he was worth it. Rondon, 22, throws in the triple digits routinely, and while wildness and relative inexperience is an issue, it generally comes down to opportunity for saves. If he wins the closer role -- and the Tigers seem prepared to let him win it -- the upside for 30 saves and 100 strikeouts is very much there.
3. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: He certainly did all he could to earn big league time with the Kansas City Royals in 2012, hitting .314 with 37 home runs at two minor league levels, but Jeff Francoeur held his job, and somehow continues to, and Myers was dealt for pitching. The power seems legit, and it would seem unlikely that Sam Fuld, Shelley Duncan and Luke Scott will keep Myers from earning a regular job. Myers should hit at least 20 home runs in 2013.
4. Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds: Before the Shin-Soo Choo trade, Hamilton had a legit shot to win the center field job. Now he appears ticketed for Triple-A Louisville so he can learn the position -- he has been a shortstop -- and work on his bunting. The speed is ridiculous; Hamilton stole 155 bases in 132 minor league games in 2012. Give him 500 big league at-bats and, unless he hits like Dee Gordon, he'd swipe 75 bags easily. Of course, I would have ranked him No. 1 on this list if I thought he'd get such an opportunity. I think he's in the minors at least half the season, but he's still worth drafting late.
5. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Ah, here comes the word "opportunity" again. Taveras is only 20, but he looks major league ready after producing a .952 OPS, with power and speed, at Double-A Springfield. The Cardinals have a few older fellows in the outfield corners (Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran) and a competent center fielder (Jon Jay), but if anyone is hurt in March, Taveras becomes very interesting. For now, don't assume Taveras gets more than a midseason look.

6. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Chicago Cubs: The 32-year-old right-hander is technically a big league rookie, and was a dominant closer in Japan for years. Meanwhile, Carlos Marmol continues to walk everything in sight, and is eminently replaceable. Fujikawa is a prime sleeper closer.
7. Adam Eaton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: The diminutive center fielder (5-foot-8) has always hit for average, taken walks and stolen bases, and now that Justin Upton is a former Diamondback, Eaton should have a job. He's ready to lead off and hit .280 with 10 home runs, 35 steals and many runs scored.
8. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins: This former first-round pick finally produced interesting fantasy numbers at Double-A New Britain in 2012, and with Denard Span and Ben Revere traded, he should get an opportunity. Hicks is more of a batting average risk than Eaton, but he also takes more walks and brings more power upside.
9. Shelby Miller, SP, Cardinals: He might lack the upside of Dylan Bundy and Trevor Bauer, fellow heralded but younger right-handers, but Miller made 27 Triple-A starts and seems to have a rotation spot set. Bundy is 20 and hasn't pitched at Triple-A, while Bauer was stunningly dealt to Cleveland this winter. I like Miller the most of this group for 2013.
10. Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers: Another center fielder likely being presented with an opportunity, Martin doesn't figure to pile on the stolen bases, as he was successful on only 10 of 19 attempts at Triple-A, but the lefty-hitting Cuban brings an intriguing raw mix of pop and speed.
Others to watch: Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners; Jedd Gyorko, 3B, San Diego Padres; Mike Olt, 1B, Texas Rangers; Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles; Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians; Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals; Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies; Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy ranks summit: Notes and themes

Eric Karabell

It started Tuesday morning with much debate about the great -- or perhaps merely very good -- Mike Trout and ended during the evening Wednesday with closers and Cabreras (Melky and Asdrubal) sliding into our Top 100. In between, the ESPN Fantasy team laughed, cried and came to a friendly consensus while evaluating many players in our annual two-day Fantasy Baseball Rankings Summit.

I always look forward to our summits, not only because I can't wait to talk baseball on a cold January day (or any day, for that matter), but because it's a reminder of how fortunate we are to be able to help create and mold opinions for the upcoming season. And truth be told, plenty of opinions were swayed, including my own.

<offer>So with the myriad storylines from the awesome 2012 season not forgotten, but certainly in our proverbial rearview mirror, here are some of the noteworthy themes that came out of our meetings that are in clear focus for this season, mostly the result of interesting and productive analysis and debates.</offer>

Top of the mountain: I can't say this surprised me, but whereas in most seasons there's at least some token debate about the No. 1 pick, it's hard to remember a year like this, with three choices and one young player under such a microscope. So many of your favorite fantasy options will regress from the previous season, with Los Angeles Angels outfielder Trout likely among them, but to what degree? We opened the meetings discussing Trout versus Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers for the top outfield and potentially overall status, along with Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera. One has to think the debate will rage on for months, even through the summer, with Trout's statistics being intensely poked and prodded from every angle. Ultimately Braun was given the group nod for No. 1, followed by Trout and Cabrera.

Catching the fever: It's easy to forget that there were so many other memorable performances in 2012, and what San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey was able to accomplish certainly made a mark in our rankings. A year ago, our first catcher barely cracked the top 50, but Posey had little trouble crashing our second-round party for this year, edging out the likes of David Wright, Josh Hamilton and all but two starting pitchers. There's significant and unique high-end depth at the catching position, with batting average helpers (Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez), power threats (Wilin Rosario, Mike Napoli) and multiposition eligible options (Posey, Mauer, Carlos Santana each can play first base). It's clear there's much to like -- perhaps a bit too much -- at this oft-overlooked spot.

Hurt, and perhaps a bit forgotten: It's amazing how quickly a once-beloved fantasy option can fall out of favor, and there was great variance in how staffers viewed players coming off injury, such as Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury and Roy Halladay. A year ago, these players were either first-round picks or awfully close to it. They aren't anymore. There are no guarantees these players can return to past statistical glory, either due to their bodies betraying them or because they have set expectations at such a high level, but I seem to be a bit more optimistic and trusting than most. I already surprised colleagues by exhibiting non-conservative behavior on youngsters Trout and future stud Bryce Harper, and continued the trend with recovering veterans. I did, however, resist nominating Lance Berkman for Top 100 status!

Fool me once, fool me twice: Fantasy evaluators tend to possess a relatively short memory in conjunction with prior draft results, and this week was no different, with several young players apparently falling out of favor. Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer wasn't the only player ticketed for stardom to disappoint fantasy owners, but it was interesting to see how the room wasn't in the mood to be fooled by him or others falling short of expectations, such as Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus and to some degree Giants hurler Tim Lincecum, each of whom ranked far better this time last year. I might have been more forgiving than most with these players, but not to the same degree as the elite hitters coming off injury.

Making the pitch: If you thought there was plenty of starting pitching depth last season, wait until you see what's waiting for 2013. Frankly, it's a bit difficult to avoid building a capable, if not strong, rotation. Reasonable minds can debate how long into drafts fantasy owners can and should wait for the elite strikeout starters -- I'm waiting a long time -- but if you're like me and want to be patient, there is ample reward in the teen rounds as well. For those who participated in fantasy leagues a decade ago and want to compare this hitter-poor era, just note that some of the statistical benchmarks aren't even in the same neighborhood. Depth is nice, but it also takes more to win pitching categories these days. Figuring out the proper balance in constructing a team will be critical.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Ranking the farm systems[/h][h=3]St. Louis, with five top-100 players, boasts the top system in baseball[/h]By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)

I've done these rankings for the past few years, and I was surprised at how few farm systems there were this year that had both impact and depth, fewer than in any of the previous years in which I've gone through this exercise. Some of that reflects all of the major promotions that took place in 2012, but we've also hit a slightly down period in the cycle of farm system quality.
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[h=3]1. St. Louis Cardinals[/h]

The Cardinals have drafted well, fared well in Latin America, traded well and developed well over the past five years, fulfilling the main goals of a farm system: Provide talent for the major league roster, and provide currency for trades to do the same.

St. Louis has shown a willingness to use young players in minor roles, with some of them graduating to full-time roles, a process I think will be easier under current manager Mike Matheny -- and it's a good thing, as the system is bursting with players who look like they'll be ready for the majors in the next year and who project as average regulars or more.

There at least five guys in the Cardinals' system -- if we include Tyrell Jenkins, who's coming off a shoulder injury -- who project as mid-rotation starters or better. Two of them -- Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal -- are ready now. They've got the minors' best pure offensive prospect in Oscar Taveras, their usual assortment of unheralded relief prospects and plenty of depth in the type of bat-first college position prospects they've had success with over the past few years, a strategy that helped yield guys like Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter.

They're in extremely good position to keep the major league club in contention for another five years without forcing them to ratchet up the payroll, and should produce a few rookie of the year candidates in that period, as well.

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[h=3]2. Minnesota Twins[/h]
The Twins placed more players on my top 100 (seven) than any other team, only one of whom was initially signed by another organization, and they added a former top-100 guy, Trevor May, in a trade this offseason. Their system is particularly strong in center field, enough that they're working on converting Eddie Rosario to second base, and has more power arms with a chance to start than it has at any point in the past decade.

The major league team is down, and isn't going to turn it all around in a year, but there's a lot of talent coming around which the Twins can build another contender.

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[h=3]3. Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
The Rays had some setbacks among their highest-profile prospects this past year, but added a top-10 prospect in Wil Myers, a top-100 prospect in Jake Odorizzi and a former top-100 prospect in Mike Montgomery in the James Shields trade. They're deepest in power arms, although many of them are a grade or two of command below where they'll need to be to profile as starters, and right now their next impact bat after Myers would be in low Class A or short-season ball.

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[h=3]4. Houston Astros[/h]
The Astros had the second most money to spend in last June's draft and used it extremely wisely, landing the second player on my draft board and four other players off my top 60, while also adding some lower-ceiling talent through trades of the few valuable assets the new front office inherited. Their top two picks from 2010, Delino DeShields Jr. and Mike Foltynewicz, bounced back from disappointing first years to re-establish their prospect value, as well.

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[h=3]5. Chicago Cubs[/h]
The Cubs' rebuilding process isn't much further along than the Twins' or the Astros' in terms of time, but they spent extravagantly in the international market before the new CBA's restrictions went into effect last summer, landing the Cuban toolshed Jorge Soler (and the Cuban flop Gerardo Concepcion, but we're not going to talk about him), then later using their international pool money on the Dominican pitcher with an electric arm currently known as Juan Carlos Paniagua, who has gone through more names than the thief known as Parker. The Cubs also scored big in last year's draft, addressing the system's lack of starting pitching candidates while also bulking up its depth in outfield prospects.

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[h=3]6. San Diego Padres[/h]
My top system from last year graduated several players to the majors, saw a few significant injuries to top pitching prospects but then added a ton of high school pitching talent through a very strong draft. The system's weakness is in near-ready talent, where only infielder Jedd Gyorko and right-hander Casey Kelly are likely to be significant contributors this year, with lefty Robbie Erlin a possible option for the back of the rotation.

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[h=3]7. Pittsburgh Pirates[/h]
Their top two pitching prospects rival any club's at this point, with Gerrit Cole likely to reach the majors this year and Jameson Taillon probably a year behind, while their low Class A West Virginia roster was one of the strongest teams for prospects, including up-the-middle bats, last spring. The knee injury that wiped out nearly all of 2011 bonus baby Josh Bell's season after his awful (tiny-sample) start hurts, as he needed those repetitions at the plate and in the field.

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[h=3]8. Seattle Mariners[/h]
The Mariners still have that raft of starting pitching prospects, with Victor Sanchez and Brandon Maurer stepping up as James Paxton took a step back. Their first pick in the draft, Mike Zunino, might be the first position player from that draft class to reach the majors.

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[h=3]9. Texas Rangers[/h]
They have Jurickson Profar, arguably the top prospect in baseball, three guys in the back half of the top 100, and as much talent from their short-season rosters last year as any organization in baseball, primarily on the position-player side. Their international spending spree had to end under the new CBA, but many of the fruits of those efforts are just now reaching full-season leagues, setting the Rangers up well to maintain their contender status for several more years.

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[h=3]10. New York Yankees[/h]
It's a top-heavy system, but the group of position players who started in low Class A Charleston last year, some of whom finished in high-A Tampa, could produce as many as three above-average or better regulars plus several other guys who'll have big league value. They'd rank even higher had they not lost two major starting pitching prospects to season-long injuries, with one, Manny Banuelos, probably out now until 2014.

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[h=3]11. Kansas City Royals[/h]
The Royals aren't well represented on my top 100 (although two prospects they just traded are on it), but they've got more sleeper/breakout candidates than any other organization. I could go more than 10 deep and still make good arguments for those prospects to jump on to the list next year, guys like Jorge Bonifacio, Adalberto Mondesi, Miguel Almonte and Kenny Diekroeger. I didn't like the trade for James Shields, but I still really like the overall direction of things in Kansas City when you look from top to bottom.

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[h=3]12. Cincinnati Reds[/h]
They have this really fast guy you may have heard of, and actually saw some strong debuts for 2012 draft guys and have three starting pitching prospects already marching up through full-season ball, one of whom, Tony Cingrani, got a cup of coffee in September.

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[h=3]13. Baltimore Orioles[/h]
Dylan Bundy emerged as the minors' best pitching prospect in 2012, while their first pick from last year's draft, Kevin Gausman, was one of the hottest names in Florida instructional league in September. They'd rank higher had Manny Machado not lost his rookie eligibility in September.

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[h=3]14. New York Mets[/h]
The R.A. Dickey trade really boosted their system, and several Latin American arms had strong years in 2012 to bolster the system's total value. First-rounder Gavin Cecchini could move quickly for a prep kid, as he's pretty advanced for a teenager and doesn't have much blocking him at shortstop.

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[h=3]15. Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]
Dealing Trevor Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Justin Upton trade, but they're still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. Infielder Andrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Eckels, their seventh- and 11th-rounders from last year's draft, both came out strong in rookie ball and could be minor steals, yet neither sniffed the team's top 10.

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[h=3]16. Miami Marlins[/h]
An impact bat (Christian Yelich), an impact arm (Jose Fernandez), a couple of above-average guys from Toronto (Justin Nicolino and Jake Marisnick), two quick-moving lefties (Andrew Heaney and Adam Conley) from the past two drafts … this is the best system that Florida taxpayers' money could buy!

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[h=3]17. Boston Red Sox[/h]
A lot went right on the farm for Boston this year, with Xander Bogaerts looking like he can stay at shortstop, Jackie Bradley Jr. lighting everyone up with his plate discipline and Matt Barnes and Henry Owens posting very strong full-season debuts. The system's real shortage is in big league ready talent, with right-hander Allen Webster probably the closest.

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[h=3]18. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
They are a little underrepresented in the top 100, but with a lot of guys who'd either be in the next 50 or who could jump into the top 50 next year. That group is led by Yasiel Puig, who barely played in 2013 before surgery to address a staph infection kept him out of the Arizona Fall League.

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[h=3]19. Cleveland Indians[/h]
With Francisco Lindor and Dorssys Paulino, they have some of the best shortstop depth of any organization in baseball right now. They could be primed for a big leap if any of the young pitching they've drafted the past two years comes through in 2013.

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[h=3]20. Atlanta Braves[/h]
They actually didn't give up that much in the Upton trade, but they've drafted so poorly the past few years that it's really hurt the system. The 2010 draft probably won't produce much of anything besides Andrelton Simmons (no longer eligible for the list), 2011 looks just slightly better right now and 2009 is likely to end up producing Mike Minor and nothing else. They're not lower because they've made good trades and found value in non-traditional ways, but you can't get this little value from the draft for long without feeling it.

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[h=3]21. Washington Nationals[/h]
I love their top five prospects. There's a bottomless crevasse somewhere not far after that.

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[h=3]22. Oakland Athletics[/h]
One huge impact guy (Addison Russell), then a ton of depth guys who look like average regulars or mid-rotation starters. Their Arizona Rookie League club was stacked, though, which puts them in position to make a big move up if those guys carry it forward to low-A next year.

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[h=3]23. Colorado Rockies[/h]
They had setbacks with several major prospects this year due to injury, poor performance or other factors, although first-rounder David Dahl obliterated the rookie-level Pioneer League as one of its youngest regulars, and the team even saw signs of life from 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek, whose stuff has returned and who started throwing strikes again at the end of the season, including the playoffs. I was never a huge Tyler Anderson guy out of the draft, but I think he could move quickly this year and get to the majors faster than the 2012 performance would lead you to believe.

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[h=3]24. Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
A top-10 system before the big offseason trades, probably top five, but Alex Anthopoulos pushed his chips to the center of the table, stood up and said "Boo-yah!" … but in the politest way possible.

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[h=3]25. Detroit Tigers[/h]
The Tigers have given up a lot of high draft picks over the past few years to sign free agents, understandable given how well the major league team has fared but not a great way to keep a farm system afloat, especially since the new CBA limits how much the team can spend. They might see their top three prospects (Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon) all contribute in the majors this year, though, and would rank near the top of systems if we were going just off potential 2013 impact.

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[h=3]26. San Francisco Giants[/h]
Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now. After closer Heath Hembree, the Giants don't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. I could see some of their second-tier arms becoming useful trade chips for them to add a piece in July, though, so they're not without assets, just without many potential stars.

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[h=3]27. Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
Their highest-ranked prospect on my top 100 (no team was shut out entirely) is the lowest of any team's highest-ranked prospect. They do, however, have a number of intriguing, high-risk guys from low-A on down, especially on the pitching side.

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[h=3]28. Chicago White Sox[/h]
The system is improving, helped by a draft where the team opened up and looked more at prep players up top, and progress from a couple of arms already in the system, including two less-heralded pitchers from the 2011 draft (Erik Johnson and Scott Snodgress).

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[h=3]29. Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
This system has one top-100 prospect and a lot of back-end starters or probable relievers. I didn't love their draft in 2012 despite the extra picks, as they didn't manipulate their money to get any players who fell for signability reasons. They took only one player, second-rounder Tyrone Taylor, who has significant upside to become an above-average or better regular.

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[h=3]30. Los Angeles Angels[/h]
When you don't pick until the third round and then trade three prospects for Zack Greinke, this is something of an inevitable consequence. They did place one player on the top 100 and have a lot of guys who project as big leaguers, but more as role players than everyday guys or better. First baseman C.J. Cron didn't make my top 100, but if he can stay healthy and remain at first base, he could break into impact status.